AK-47
A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$13.99
Advertised RTP
73.87%
EV $10.33 from 42 items
Observed RTP, 30d
83.73%
2,044 openings, odds method
Variance
0.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
30.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
83.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 74.67% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (80.95% – 86.52%, 2,044 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,049 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 73.87%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $13.99 | 73.87% | 42 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $13.99 | 73.72% | 42 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $13.99 | 73.69% | 42 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $13.99 | 73.97% | 43 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $13.99 | 74.29% | 42 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $13.99 | 74.31% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $13.99 | 74.28% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $13.99 | 74.35% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $13.99 | 74.41% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $13.99 | 74.83% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $13.99 | 74.80% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $13.99 | 74.80% | 42 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $13.99 | 74.82% | 42 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $13.99 | 74.81% | 42 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $13.99 | 74.82% | 42 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $13.99 | 74.83% | 42 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $13.99 | 74.80% | 42 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $13.99 | 74.81% | 43 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $13.99 | 74.82% | 42 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $13.99 | 74.82% | 43 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $13.99 | 74.76% | 43 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $13.99 | 74.88% | 43 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $13.99 | 75.22% | 43 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $13.99 | 75.23% | 43 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $13.99 | 75.13% | 42 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $13.99 | 74.83% | 42 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $13.99 | 74.93% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $13.99 | 74.90% | 43 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $13.99 | 74.92% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $13.99 | 74.90% | 43 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 13.9%covert 1.1%pink 16.9%red 1.0%restricted 4.7%rare 15.6%mil spec 0.4%Ancient 1.1%violet 1.1%blue 3.5%#eb4b4b 4.4%industrial 21.3%#d32ee6 15.1%best hit —