ALL-IN AK-47
A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$2.49
Advertised RTP
62.94%
EV $1.57 from 2 items
Observed RTP, 30d
127.97%
1,380 openings, odds method
Variance
37.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 180
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 63.64% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (95.08% – 160.86%, 1,380 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values2 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,380 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 180 | $205 | 72.5% | 7 | 7.7 | 0.91× |
| AK-47 | Wintergreen (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 99.4% | $0.43 | 27.5% | 1,355 | 1372.3 | 0.99× |
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 62.94%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $2.49 | 62.94% | 2 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $2.49 | 62.78% | 2 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $2.49 | 62.76% | 2 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $2.49 | 63.03% | 2 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $2.49 | 63.30% | 2 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $2.49 | 63.29% | 2 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $2.49 | 63.28% | 2 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $2.49 | 63.32% | 2 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $2.49 | 63.39% | 2 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $2.49 | 63.75% | 2 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $2.49 | 63.74% | 2 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $2.49 | 63.69% | 2 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $2.49 | 63.76% | 2 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $2.49 | 63.72% | 2 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $2.49 | 63.72% | 2 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $2.49 | 63.76% | 2 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $2.49 | 63.71% | 2 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $2.49 | 63.71% | 2 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $2.49 | 63.72% | 2 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $2.49 | 63.72% | 2 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $2.49 | 63.68% | 2 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $2.49 | 63.79% | 2 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $2.49 | 64.06% | 2 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $2.49 | 64.09% | 2 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $2.49 | 64.00% | 2 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $2.49 | 63.74% | 2 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $2.49 | 63.81% | 2 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $2.49 | 63.83% | 2 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $2.49 | 63.82% | 2 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $2.49 | 63.80% | 2 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 0.6%#4b69ff 99.4%best hit $245 (98.20x)