ALL-IN AWP

A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$2.69

Advertised RTP

64.75%

EV $1.74 from 2 items

Observed RTP, 30d

246.41%

32.8K openings, odds method

Variance

38.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 142

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

99.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

273.62%±24.342,739 openings

7 days

243.61%±7.6327K openings

30 days

246.41%±6.9532.8K openings

since tracking started

246.41%±6.9532.8K openings

64.0%181.3%298.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 65.68% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (239.46% – 253.36%, 32,816 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	2,739	273.62%±24.3	+16.8σ	odds
7d	27K	243.61%±7.63	+45.7σ	odds
30d	32.8K	246.41%±6.95	+50.9σ	odds
All	32.8K	246.41%±6.95	+50.9σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values2 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 32.8K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 142	$199	80.4%	924	230.9	4.00×
AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	99.3%	$0.34	19.6%	24,674	32585.1	0.76×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)weapon · covertrina$2.69$22282.56x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AWP | Arsenic Spill (Minimal Wear)weapon · bluen1ck$2.69$0.280.10x1m

AWP | Arsenic Spill (Minimal Wear)weapon · bluePROFIMAN$2.69$0.280.10x11m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 64.75%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$2.69	64.75%	2
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$2.69	64.60%	2
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$2.69	64.60%	2
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$2.69	64.86%	2
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$2.69	65.13%	2
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$2.69	65.14%	2
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$2.69	65.11%	2
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$2.69	65.19%	2
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$2.69	65.24%	2
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$2.69	65.59%	2
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$2.69	65.59%	2
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$2.69	65.58%	2
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$2.69	65.59%	2
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$2.69	65.59%	2
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$2.69	65.60%	2
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$2.69	65.60%	2
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$2.69	65.56%	2
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$2.69	65.58%	2
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$2.69	65.60%	2
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$2.69	65.57%	2
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$2.69	65.54%	2
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$2.69	65.65%	2
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$2.69	65.93%	2
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$2.69	65.95%	2
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$2.69	65.87%	2
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$2.69	65.58%	2
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$2.69	65.69%	2
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$2.69	65.65%	2
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$2.69	65.67%	2
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$2.69	65.64%	2

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.7%blue 99.3%best hit $222 (82.56x)