ALL-IN GLOCK-18

A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$1.09

Advertised RTP

63.44%

EV $0.69 from 2 items

Observed RTP, 30d

147.93%

1,472 openings, odds method

Variance

35.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 122

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

99.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

102 openings · below min

7 days

166.82%±38.23987 openings

30 days

147.93%±31.351,472 openings

since tracking started

147.93%±31.351,472 openings

19.5%138.0%256.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 64.24% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (116.59% – 179.28%, 1,472 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	102	137.98%±118.0	—	odds
7d	987	166.82%±38.2	+5.3σ	odds
30d	1,472	147.93%±31.3	+5.2σ	odds
All	1,472	147.93%±31.3	+5.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values2 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,473 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Glock-18 \| Franklin (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 122	$72.46	86.1%	21	12.1	1.74×
Glock-18 \| Winterized (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	99.2%	$0.10	13.9%	1,285	1460.9	0.88×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Glock-18 | Franklinweapon · restrictedMaestro$1.09$76.0169.73x8d

Glock-18 | Franklin (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythicalgladiolus$1.09$75.7669.50x8d

Glock-18 | Franklin (Field-Tested)weapon · MythicalMaestro$1.09$75.7669.50x8d

Glock-18 | Franklin (Minimal Wear)weapon · MythicalGLADIATOR$1.09$75.4969.26x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Glock-18 | Winterized (Field-Tested)weapon · RareDaBuggs$1.09$0.070.07x15m

Glock-18 | Winterized (Field-Tested)weapon · RareJayThiel$1.09$0.090.08x3h

Glock-18 | Winterized (Field-Tested)weapon · Raredevagarinho$1.09$0.090.08x3h

Glock-18 | Winterized (Field-Tested)weapon · Rarestervonskiy$1.09$0.100.09x7h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 63.44%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$1.09	63.44%	2
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$1.09	63.29%	2
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$1.09	63.28%	2
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$1.09	63.49%	2
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$1.09	63.83%	2
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$1.09	63.82%	2
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$1.09	63.77%	2
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$1.09	63.87%	2
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$1.09	63.92%	2
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$1.09	64.24%	2
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$1.09	64.20%	2
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$1.09	64.20%	2
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$1.09	64.25%	2
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$1.09	64.24%	2
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$1.09	64.23%	2
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$1.09	64.25%	2
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$1.09	64.22%	2
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$1.09	64.22%	2
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$1.09	64.23%	2
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$1.09	64.23%	2
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$1.09	64.19%	2
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$1.09	64.30%	2
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$1.09	64.64%	2
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$1.09	64.60%	2
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$1.09	64.49%	2
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$1.09	64.24%	2
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$1.09	64.38%	2
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$1.09	64.34%	2
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$1.09	64.33%	2
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$1.09	64.31%	2

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedMythical 0.8%Rare 99.2%best hit $76.01 (69.73x)