ALL-IN M4A1-S

A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$2.09

Advertised RTP

62.32%

EV $1.30 from 2 items

Observed RTP, 30d

55.81%

3,624 openings, odds method

Variance

35.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 266

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

99.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

27.67%±59.61371 openings

7 days

58.23%±22.982,457 openings

30 days

55.81%±19.503,624 openings

since tracking started

55.81%±19.503,624 openings

-0.5%43.8%88.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	371	27.67%±59.6	−1.1σ	odds
7d	2,457	58.23%±23.0	−0.4σ	odds
30d	3,624	55.81%±19.5	−0.7σ	odds
All	3,624	55.81%±19.5	−0.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values2 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,624 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A1-S \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · epic	1 in 266	$203	58.7%	8	13.6	0.59×
M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	99.6%	$0.54	41.3%	3,225	3610.4	0.89×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 12 Nov, 00:45 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

M4A1-S | Fadeweapon · covertReserva$2.09$209100.1x9d

M4A1-S | Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · epicstervonskiy$2.09$20497.66x1d

M4A1-S | Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · epicТолкуйдаа$2.09$18990.42x7d

M4A1-S | Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · epicThe oNe$2.09$18889.97x6d

M4A1-S | Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · epicWarriorspeek$2.09$18889.78x5d

M4A1-S | Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · epicJPCadeirante-.$2.09$18789.68x5d

M4A1-S | Fadeweapon · covertRicardoRPH$2.09$18689.01x9d

M4A1-S | Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · epic50h1gh x deewit.$2.09$18588.50x6d

M4A1-S | Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · epicJPCadeirante-.$2.09$18186.82x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical!The Collector - TRADING$2.09$0.540.26x3h

M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythicaltry-AGAIN$2.09$0.540.26x9h

M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested)weapon · MythicalFRØSTCLAW$2.09$0.540.26x9h

M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested)weapon · MythicalCos_Der$2.09$0.540.26x9h

M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested)weapon · MythicalSlow Bodi Flow$2.09$0.860.41x10h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 62.32%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
12 Nov, 00:45 UTC	$2.09	62.32%	2
11 Nov, 14:55 UTC	$2.09	62.69%	2
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$2.09	62.50%	2
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$2.09	62.25%	2
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$2.09	62.24%	2
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$2.09	62.47%	2
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$2.09	62.75%	2
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$2.09	62.75%	2
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$2.09	62.74%	2
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$2.09	62.81%	2
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$2.09	63.02%	2
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$2.09	63.23%	2
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$2.09	63.22%	2
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$2.09	63.16%	2
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$2.09	63.20%	2
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$2.09	63.41%	2
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$2.09	63.23%	2
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$2.09	63.19%	2
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$2.09	63.21%	2
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$2.09	63.21%	2
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$2.09	63.21%	2
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$2.09	63.21%	2
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$2.09	63.36%	2
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$2.09	63.24%	2
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$2.09	63.53%	2
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$2.09	63.54%	2
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$2.09	63.49%	2
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$2.09	63.21%	2
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$2.09	63.28%	2
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$2.09	63.28%	2

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedepic 0.4%Mythical 99.6%best hit $209 (100.1x)