ALL-IN M4A4

A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$1.79

Advertised RTP

63.24%

EV $1.13 from 2 items

Observed RTP, 30d

78.65%

1,709 openings, odds method

Variance

48.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 241

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

99.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

208 openings · below min

7 days

78.52%±35.751,517 openings

30 days

78.65%±33.651,709 openings

since tracking started

78.65%±33.651,709 openings

26.0%120.5%215.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	208	120.50%±93.7	—	odds
7d	1,517	78.52%±35.8	+0.8σ	odds
30d	1,709	78.65%±33.6	+0.9σ	odds
All	1,709	78.65%±33.6	+0.9σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values2 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,710 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 241	$194	71.1%	9	7.1	1.27×
M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	99.6%	$0.33	28.9%	1,646	1702.9	0.97×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Field-Tested)weapon · redWarriorspeek$1.79$224125.2x4d

M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Field-Tested)weapon · redZverBaze™$1.79$209116.7x7d

M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Field-Tested)weapon · redСиний Птах$1.79$205114.4x5d

M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Field-Tested)weapon · redsnkrsl$1.79$204114.2x5d

M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Field-Tested)weapon · redlestor$1.79$204114.1x5d

M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Field-Tested)weapon · redZverBaze™$1.79$191106.5x10h

M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Field-Tested)weapon · red$torm_CK$1.79$191106.5x10h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A4 | Etch Lord (Field-Tested)weapon · violetPatriot$1.79$0.330.19x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 63.24%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:55 UTC	$1.79	63.24%	2
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$1.79	63.08%	2
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$1.79	62.93%	2
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$1.79	62.90%	2
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$1.79	63.16%	2
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$1.79	63.44%	2
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$1.79	63.45%	2
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$1.79	63.45%	2
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$1.79	63.50%	2
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$1.79	63.54%	2
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$1.79	63.92%	2
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$1.79	63.90%	2
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$1.79	63.90%	2
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$1.79	63.90%	2
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$1.79	63.89%	2
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$1.79	63.90%	2
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$1.79	63.91%	2
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$1.79	63.89%	2
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$1.79	63.89%	2
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$1.79	63.89%	2
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$1.79	63.90%	2
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$1.79	63.85%	2
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$1.79	63.92%	2
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$1.79	64.22%	2
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$1.79	64.27%	2
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$1.79	64.16%	2
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$1.79	63.92%	2
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$1.79	64.00%	2
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$1.79	63.98%	2
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$1.79	64.00%	2

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedred 0.4%violet 99.6%best hit $224 (125.2x)