Олл-ин на грин!
A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$10.99
Advertised RTP
70.16%
EV $7.71 from 3 items
Observed RTP, 30d
210.07%
5,771 openings, odds method
Variance
35.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 94
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
98.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 70.54% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (194.52% – 225.61%, 5,771 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values3 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,771 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 94 | $639 | 88.2% | 192 | 61.4 | 3.13× |
| Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 55.4% | $1.02 | 7.3% | 3,152 | 3199.1 | 0.99× |
| Glock-18 | Catacombs (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare | 43.5% | $0.80 | 4.5% | 2,386 | 2510.5 | 0.95× |
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 70.16%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $10.99 | 70.16% | 3 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $10.99 | 69.92% | 3 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $10.99 | 69.81% | 3 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $10.99 | 69.75% | 3 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $10.99 | 70.05% | 3 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $10.99 | 70.40% | 3 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $10.99 | 70.40% | 3 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $10.99 | 70.35% | 3 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $10.99 | 70.42% | 3 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $10.99 | 70.50% | 3 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $10.99 | 70.86% | 3 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $10.99 | 70.85% | 3 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $10.99 | 70.84% | 3 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $10.99 | 70.89% | 3 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $10.99 | 70.87% | 3 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $10.99 | 70.86% | 3 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $10.99 | 70.87% | 3 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $10.99 | 70.82% | 3 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $10.99 | 70.85% | 3 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $10.99 | 70.82% | 3 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $10.99 | 70.88% | 3 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $10.99 | 70.79% | 3 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $10.99 | 70.90% | 3 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $10.99 | 71.21% | 3 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $10.99 | 71.24% | 3 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $10.99 | 71.18% | 3 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $10.99 | 70.90% | 3 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $10.99 | 70.95% | 3 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $10.99 | 70.93% | 3 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $10.99 | 70.98% | 3 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.1%mil spec 55.4%Rare 43.5%best hit $697 (63.46x)