ALL-IN USP

A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$0.67

Advertised RTP

64.19%

EV $0.43 from 2 items

Observed RTP, 30d

104.94%

6,738 openings, odds method

Variance

28.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 155

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

99.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

103.09%±26.741,358 openings

7 days

109.67%±12.736,033 openings

30 days

104.94%±12.056,738 openings

since tracking started

104.94%±12.056,738 openings

63.0%96.8%130.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 64.68% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (92.90% – 116.99%, 6,738 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,358	103.09%±26.7	+2.9σ	odds
7d	6,033	109.67%±12.7	+6.9σ	odds
30d	6,738	104.94%±12.0	+6.6σ	odds
All	6,738	104.94%±12.0	+6.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values2 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,781 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
USP-S \| Orion (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 155	$44.87	67.2%	81	43.7	1.85×
USP-S \| PC-GRN (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	99.4%	$0.14	32.8%	1,561	6737.3	0.23×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

USP-S | Orion (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedШнурок$0.67$45.8868.48x4d

USP-S | Orion (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedSomewhere i belong$0.67$45.6468.12x4d

USP-S | Orion (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified*)Hugstalker*($0.67$45.4767.87x6d

USP-S | Orion (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedsnkrsl$0.67$45.4367.81x5d

USP-S | Orion (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedBarba_Ruiva$0.67$45.3667.70x4d

USP-S | Orion (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedEl1on$0.67$45.1867.43x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

USP-S | PC-GRN (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffкак же меня зaeбал$0.67$0.140.21x7m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 64.19%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:55 UTC	$0.67	64.19%	2
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$0.67	64.06%	2
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$0.67	63.93%	2
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$0.67	63.79%	2
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$0.67	64.10%	2
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$0.67	64.41%	2
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$0.67	64.34%	2
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$0.67	64.37%	2
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$0.67	64.38%	2
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$0.67	64.47%	2
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$0.67	64.87%	2
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$0.67	64.84%	2
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$0.67	64.83%	2
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$0.67	64.87%	2
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$0.67	64.85%	2
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$0.67	64.84%	2
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.67	64.81%	2
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.67	64.80%	2
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$0.67	64.87%	2
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$0.67	64.87%	2
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.67	64.87%	2
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.67	64.84%	2
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$0.67	64.90%	2
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$0.67	65.23%	2
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$0.67	65.24%	2
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$0.67	65.15%	2
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$0.67	64.91%	2
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$0.67	64.99%	2
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$0.67	64.91%	2
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$0.67	64.91%	2

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 0.6%#4b69ff 99.4%best hit $45.88 (68.48x)