Alpha

A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$11.99

Advertised RTP

73.25%

EV $8.78 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

154.13%

1 openings, odds method

Variance

0.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

24.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

67.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

1 openings · below min

30 days

1 openings · below min

since tracking started

1 openings · below min

39.5%154.0%268.5%

Small sample. 1 openings and 0.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	1	154.13%±113.8	—	odds
30d	1	154.13%±113.8	—	odds
All	1	154.13%±113.8	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
MAG-7 \| Hazard (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 28	$23.84	9.8%	0	0.0	—
SCAR-20 \| Emerald (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 27	$23.80	9.9%	0	0.0	—
AUG \| Anodized Navy (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 22	$20.92	10.9%	0	0.0	—
FAMAS \| Spitfire (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 19	$19.36	11.4%	1	0.1	—
PP-Bizon \| Rust Coat (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 14	$15.56	12.3%	0	0.1	—
Five-SeveN \| Anodized Gunmetal (Factory New)weapon · Common	1 in 12	$12.10	11.9%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 11	$7.24	7.7%	0	0.1	—
SSG 08 \| Mayan Dreams (Field-Tested)weapon · Industrial Grade	1 in 11	$5.92	5.9%	0	0.1	—
Negev \| Palm (Field-Tested)weapon · Industrial Grade	1 in 14	$4.15	3.4%	0	0.1	—
Tec-9 \| Tornado (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	1 in 14	$4.11	3.3%	0	0.1	—
XM1014 \| Jungle (Field-Tested)weapon · Consumer Grade	1 in 14	$4.02	3.2%	0	0.1	—
Sawed-Off \| Mosaico (Field-Tested)weapon · Industrial Grade	1 in 14	$3.99	3.1%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| Facets (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 15	$3.67	2.7%	0	0.1	—
MP9 \| Dry Season (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	1 in 19	$2.92	1.8%	0	0.1	—
MP7 \| Groundwater (Field-Tested)weapon · #777777	1 in 19	$2.78	1.6%	0	0.1	—
M249 \| Jungle DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	1 in 24	$2.20	1.1%	0	0.0	—

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

FAMAS | Spitfire (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted🅼🅰🅶🅶🅾🆃$11.99$18.481.54x2d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 73.25%

No data in this window

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$11.99	73.25%	16
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$11.99	73.08%	16
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$11.99	73.07%	16
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$11.99	73.36%	16
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$11.99	73.67%	16
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$11.99	73.68%	16
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$11.99	73.66%	16
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$11.99	73.72%	16
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$11.99	73.79%	16
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$11.99	74.20%	16
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$11.99	74.18%	16
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$11.99	74.17%	16
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$11.99	74.19%	16
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$11.99	74.19%	16
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$11.99	74.19%	16
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$11.99	74.20%	16
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$11.99	74.18%	16
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$11.99	74.18%	16
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$11.99	74.19%	16
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$11.99	74.19%	16
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$11.99	74.13%	16
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$11.99	74.25%	16
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$11.99	74.59%	16
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$11.99	74.59%	16
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$11.99	74.50%	16
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$11.99	74.20%	16
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$11.99	74.30%	16
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$11.99	74.29%	16
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$11.99	74.29%	16
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$11.99	74.28%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedmil spec 15.1%restricted 8.8%Common 8.6%Uncommon 9.4%Industrial Grade 22.8%consumer 16.7%Consumer Grade 6.9%industrial 6.5%#777777 5.2%best hit —