CS2 Ancient

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$0.11

Advertised RTP

75.33%

EV $0.08 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d

—

no counted openings

Variance

5.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

16.8%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

83.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

No counted openings yetOpenings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	—	—	—
7d	—	—	—
30d	—	—	—
All	—	—	—

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Hot / cold
Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 199,975	$95.26	0.6%	—
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 199,249	$30.45	0.2%	—
M4A4 \| Desert-Strike (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 198,972	$27.41	0.2%	—
AUG \| Fleet Flock (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 188,108	$11.90	0.1%	—
Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 186,834	$11.47	0.1%	—
P90 \| Shapewood (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 176,387	$9.26	0.1%	—
MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 126,438	$5.68	0.1%	—
Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 91,179	$4.47	0.1%	—
USP-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 42,653	$3.06	0.1%	—
AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 37,634	$2.91	0.1%	—
P250 \| Supernova (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 20,348	$2.29	0.1%	—
AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 17,457	$2.16	0.1%	—
CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 2,321	$1.07	0.6%	—
SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 1,471	$0.91	0.7%	—
Glock-18 \| Catacombs (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 907	$0.77	1.0%	—
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 629	$0.68	1.3%	—
MP5-SD \| Gauss (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 353	$0.56	1.9%	—
Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 309	$0.53	2.1%	—
P250 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear)weapon · Restricted	1 in 119	$0.38	3.8%	—
MP7 \| Just Smile (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 118	$0.38	3.8%	—
Glock-18 \| Clear Polymer (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 117	$0.37	3.9%	—
Tec-9 \| Brother (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 103	$0.36	4.2%	—
Glock-18 \| Umbral Rabbit (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 96	$0.35	4.4%	—
AUG \| Tom Cat (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 85	$0.33	4.7%	—
Desert Eagle \| Urban Rubble (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 84	$0.33	4.7%	—
P90 \| Neoqueen (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 72	$0.31	5.2%	—
AWP \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 13	$0.14	12.3%	—
P250 \| Cassette (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	12.0%	$0.07	10.3%	—
SG 553 \| Ol' Rusty (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	12.0%	$0.06	8.6%	—
MP7 \| Sunbaked (Field-Tested)weapon · Consumer Grade	11.5%	$0.05	7.0%	—
AUG \| Snake Pit (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	11.1%	$0.04	6.0%	—
AUG \| Storm (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer	10.3%	$0.04	4.8%	—
Sawed-Off \| Snake Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 13	$0.03	2.6%	—
Negev \| Army Sheen (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer	1 in 13	$0.03	2.3%	—
Dual Berettas \| Contractor (Minimal Wear)weapon · Consumer Grade	1 in 19	$0.02	1.1%	—
AUG \| Contractor (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	1 in 18	$0.02	1.1%	—

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

No history yet

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$0.11	75.33%	36
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$0.11	75.20%	36
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$0.11	75.19%	36
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$0.11	75.48%	36
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$0.11	75.73%	36
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$0.11	75.82%	36
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$0.11	75.76%	36
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$0.11	75.74%	36
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$0.11	75.99%	36
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$0.11	76.27%	36
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$0.11	76.26%	36
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$0.11	76.25%	36
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$0.11	76.27%	36
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$0.11	76.19%	36
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$0.11	76.39%	36
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.11	76.29%	36
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.11	76.23%	36
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$0.11	76.31%	36
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$0.11	76.29%	36
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.11	76.30%	36
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.11	76.15%	36
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$0.11	76.21%	36
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$0.11	76.75%	36
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$0.11	76.68%	36
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$0.11	76.68%	36
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$0.11	76.32%	36
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$0.11	76.46%	36
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$0.11	76.45%	36
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$0.11	76.38%	36
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$0.11	76.39%	36

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedred 0.0%covert 0.0%Ancient 0.0%#d32ee6 0.0%classified 0.0%Legendary 0.0%pink 0.0%restricted 0.3%Mythical 1.0%#8847ff 1.0%violet 2.5%Rare 2.2%mil spec 0.3%Restricted 0.8%Mil Spec Grade 1.2%industrial 15.4%milspec 24.0%Consumer Grade 16.9%consumer 34.4%