Price
$13.99
Advertised RTP
73.87%
EV $10.33 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
77.24%
40 openings, odds method
Variance
0.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
57.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
88.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 40 openings and 19.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 40 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Field-Tested)weapon · red | 1 in 1,767 | $191 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| FAMAS | Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested)weapon · pink | 1 in 18 | $37.82 | 20.7% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.44× |
| P250 | Apep's Curse (Field-Tested)weapon · pink | 1 in 17 | $37.63 | 20.8% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.31× |
| Glock-18 | Ramese's Reach (Field-Tested)weapon · violet | 46.2% | $7.69 | 34.4% | 18 | 18.5 | 0.97× |
| Nova | Sobek's Bite (Field-Tested)weapon · violet | 42.4% | $5.62 | 23.0% | 0 | 16.9 | 0.00× |
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 73.87%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $13.99 | 73.87% | 5 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $13.99 | 73.70% | 5 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $13.99 | 73.69% | 5 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $13.99 | 73.98% | 5 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $13.99 | 74.32% | 5 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $13.99 | 74.30% | 5 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $13.99 | 74.29% | 5 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $13.99 | 74.36% | 5 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $13.99 | 74.40% | 5 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $13.99 | 74.81% | 5 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $13.99 | 74.80% | 5 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $13.99 | 74.79% | 5 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $13.99 | 74.82% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $13.99 | 74.82% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $13.99 | 74.84% | 5 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $13.99 | 74.85% | 5 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $13.99 | 74.80% | 16 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $13.99 | 74.82% | 5 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $13.99 | 74.84% | 5 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $13.99 | 74.82% | 5 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $13.99 | 74.76% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $13.99 | 74.89% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $13.99 | 75.23% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $13.99 | 75.24% | 5 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $13.99 | 75.12% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $13.99 | 74.84% | 5 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $13.99 | 74.93% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $13.99 | 74.91% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $13.99 | 74.93% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $13.99 | 74.88% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedred 0.1%pink 11.4%violet 88.6%best hit —