Apex Legends

A case on csgo.net (Limited edition), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$0.67

Advertised RTP

77.86%

EV $0.52 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d

80.28%

24K openings, odds method

Variance

1.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

37.8%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

89.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

88.40%±5.111,976 openings

7 days

80.27%±1.6320.1K openings

30 days

80.28%±1.5024K openings

since tracking started

80.28%±1.5024K openings

77.0%85.5%94.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,976	88.40%±5.11	+4.1σ	odds
7d	20.1K	80.27%±1.63	+1.9σ	odds
30d	24K	80.28%±1.50	+1.9σ	odds
All	24K	80.28%±1.50	+1.9σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 24K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Field-Tested)weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 498	$13.69	5.3%	41	48.2	0.85×
SG 553 \| Colony IV (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 491	$8.77	3.4%	22	48.8	0.45×
FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 459	$5.13	2.1%	56	52.3	1.07×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 389	$3.46	1.7%	54	61.7	0.87×
AUG \| Random Access (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 125	$1.56	2.4%	26	191.9	0.14×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 49	$1.04	4.1%	397	490.5	0.81×
FAMAS \| Neural Net (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 29	$0.84	5.6%	772	830.7	0.93×
Glock-18 \| Trace Lock (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 28	$0.83	5.8%	708	867.7	0.82×
M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 13	$0.60	8.7%	1,655	1811.1	0.91×
Glock-18 \| Glockingbird (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 11	$0.55	9.8%	2,076	2241.2	0.93×
P250 \| Inferno (Field-Tested)weapon · Restricted	10.1%	$0.53	10.3%	2,910	2427.1	1.20×
M4A1-S \| Nitro (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	16.4%	$0.41	12.8%	4,582	3932.8	1.17×
USP-S \| 27 (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	20.7%	$0.35	13.8%	108	4961.1	0.02×
P250 \| Valence (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	25.1%	$0.30	14.3%	705	6025.8	0.12×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P250 | Valence (Field-Tested)weapon · blueHypE$0.67$0.310.46x8s

USP-S | 27 (Minimal Wear)weapon · blueHypE$0.67$0.340.51x8s

M4A1-S | Nitro (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedHypE$0.67$0.410.61x26s

P250 | Inferno (Field-Tested)weapon · RestrictedWhyNot?$0.67$0.510.76x34s

M4A4 | Turbine (Field-Tested)weapon · violetHypE$0.67$1.041.55x44s

Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ffHypE$0.67$0.550.82x44s

P250 | Inferno (Field-Tested)weapon · RestrictedHypE$0.67$0.510.76x58s

P250 | Inferno (Field-Tested)weapon · RestrictedHypE$0.67$0.510.76x1m

M4A1-S | Nitro (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedHypE$0.67$0.410.61x1m

P250 | Inferno (Field-Tested)weapon · RestrictedIns1de$0.67$0.510.76x2m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 77.86%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$0.67	77.86%	14
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$0.67	77.61%	14
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$0.67	77.66%	14
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$0.67	77.90%	14
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$0.67	78.17%	14
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$0.67	78.26%	14
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$0.67	78.27%	14
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$0.67	78.36%	14
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$0.67	78.30%	14
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$0.67	78.94%	14
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$0.67	78.83%	14
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$0.67	78.82%	14
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$0.67	78.76%	13
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$0.67	78.76%	13
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$0.67	78.71%	13
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.67	78.65%	13
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.67	78.68%	13
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$0.67	78.78%	13
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$0.67	78.71%	13
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.67	78.79%	13
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.67	78.69%	13
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$0.67	78.82%	13
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$0.67	79.18%	13
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$0.67	79.16%	13
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$0.67	79.18%	13
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$0.67	78.85%	13
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$0.67	78.79%	13
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$0.67	78.97%	13
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$0.67	78.94%	13
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$0.67	78.99%	13

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed#eb4b4b 0.2%classified 0.4%Legendary 0.3%Mythical 0.8%violet 2.0%restricted 19.9%#8847ff 20.5%Restricted 10.1%blue 45.8%best hit —