Asiimov mining
A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$0.15
Advertised RTP
64.30%
EV $0.10 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
8929.20%
1,688 openings, odds method
Variance
81.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 154
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 65.03% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (8886.36% – 8972.03%, 1,688 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,693 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 15,715 | $93.88 | 6.2% | 12 | 0.1 | — |
| AK-47 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 4,207 | $39.17 | 9.7% | 68 | 0.4 | — |
| P250 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 162 | $12.23 | 78.5% | 1,579 | 10.5 | 150.75× |
| Five-SeveN | Autumn Thicket (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer | 52.8% | <$0.01 | 3.3% | 0 | 894.7 | 0.00× |
| CZ75-Auto | Honey Paisley (Field-Tested)weapon · #b0c3d9 | 46.5% | <$0.01 | 2.4% | 0 | 787.3 | 0.00× |
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 64.30%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.15 | 64.30% | 5 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.15 | 64.17% | 5 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.15 | 64.26% | 5 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.15 | 64.29% | 5 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.15 | 64.64% | 5 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.15 | 64.64% | 5 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.15 | 64.62% | 5 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.15 | 64.68% | 5 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.15 | 64.76% | 5 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.15 | 65.08% | 5 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.15 | 65.06% | 5 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.15 | 65.05% | 5 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.15 | 65.07% | 5 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.15 | 65.09% | 5 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.15 | 65.08% | 5 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.15 | 65.08% | 5 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.15 | 65.04% | 5 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.15 | 65.08% | 5 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.15 | 65.07% | 5 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.15 | 65.07% | 5 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.15 | 65.05% | 5 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.15 | 65.14% | 5 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.15 | 65.44% | 5 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.15 | 65.49% | 5 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.15 | 65.39% | 5 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.15 | 65.12% | 5 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.15 | 65.22% | 5 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.15 | 65.17% | 5 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.15 | 65.20% | 5 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $0.15 | 65.12% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%classified 0.6%consumer 52.8%#b0c3d9 46.5%best hit $101 (675.9x)