Assault
A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$26.99
Advertised RTP
76.62%
EV $20.68 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
342.17%
4 openings, odds method
Variance
0.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
100.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 4 openings and 2.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 42,763 | $1,138 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Negev | Anodized Navy (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff | 1 in 2,235 | $393 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| MP9 | Bulldozer (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 1 in 32 | $92.40 | 13.8% | 4 | 0.1 | — |
| Five-SeveN | Candy Apple (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial | 11.7% | $55.93 | 31.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| SG 553 | Tornado (Field-Tested)weapon · Common | 85.2% | $13.02 | 53.6% | 0 | 3.4 | 0.00× |
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 76.62%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $26.99 | 76.62% | 5 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $26.99 | 76.46% | 5 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $26.99 | 76.44% | 5 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $26.99 | 76.74% | 5 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $26.99 | 77.05% | 5 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $26.99 | 77.08% | 5 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $26.99 | 77.04% | 5 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $26.99 | 77.12% | 5 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $26.99 | 77.18% | 5 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $26.99 | 77.61% | 5 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $26.99 | 77.59% | 5 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $26.99 | 77.58% | 5 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $26.99 | 77.60% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $26.99 | 77.60% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $26.99 | 77.60% | 5 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $26.99 | 77.61% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $26.99 | 77.60% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $26.99 | 77.59% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $26.99 | 77.61% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $26.99 | 77.62% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $26.99 | 77.54% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $26.99 | 77.66% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $26.99 | 78.01% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $26.99 | 78.03% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $26.99 | 77.93% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $26.99 | 77.63% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $26.99 | 77.72% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $26.99 | 77.70% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $26.99 | 77.70% | 5 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $26.99 | 77.68% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 3.1%#4b69ff 0.0%industrial 11.7%Common 85.2%best hit —