Aston Martin

A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 8 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$1.39

Advertised RTP

75.95%

EV $1.06 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d

76.16%

4,859 openings, odds method

Variance

0.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

29.4%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

88.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

77.29%±3.981,168 openings

7 days

76.16%±1.954,859 openings

30 days

76.16%±1.954,859 openings

since tracking started

76.16%±1.954,859 openings

72.5%77.3%82.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,168	77.29%±3.98	+0.8σ	odds
7d	4,859	76.16%±1.95	−0.0σ	odds
30d	4,859	76.16%±1.95	−0.0σ	odds
All	4,859	76.16%±1.95	−0.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,402 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 9,289	$35.37	0.4%	0	0.6	—
M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 8,863	$29.76	0.3%	0	0.6	—
SCAR-20 \| Emerald (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 8,008	$23.86	0.3%	1	0.7	—
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 6,781	$19.22	0.3%	2	0.8	—
AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 5,483	$15.98	0.3%	0	1.0	—
AUG \| Fleet Flock (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 3,553	$12.26	0.3%	2	1.5	1.32×
Galil AR \| Eco (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 3,329	$11.85	0.3%	0	1.6	0.00×
MP7 \| Nemesis (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,153	$9.69	0.4%	3	2.5	1.20×
SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 1,547	$8.44	0.5%	8	3.5	2.29×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 744	$6.37	0.8%	0	7.3	0.00×
MP9 \| Hydra (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 677	$6.15	0.9%	8	8.0	1.00×
AWP \| Green Energy (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 589	$5.84	0.9%	7	9.2	0.76×
MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 226	$4.11	1.7%	20	23.9	0.84×
AUG \| Stymphalian (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 172	$3.71	2.0%	10	31.4	0.32×
M4A1-S \| Flashback (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 101	$3.02	2.8%	42	53.4	0.79×
MAC-10 \| Malachite (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 97	$2.97	2.9%	2	55.8	0.04×
Charm \| Lil' Ecocharm · #d32ce6	1 in 68	$2.59	3.6%	67	78.9	0.85×
Sawed-Off \| Serenity (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 39	$2.02	4.9%	64	138.8	0.46×
PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 28	$1.73	5.8%	108	191.2	0.56×
P250 \| Wingshot (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 18	$1.32	7.0%	251	301.0	0.83×
UMP-45 \| Scaffold (Field-Tested)weapon · 3	1 in 17	$1.25	7.1%	271	324.8	0.83×
AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 15	$1.18	7.3%	69	353.0	0.20×
Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 15	$1.13	7.3%	357	369.2	0.97×
M4A1-S \| Electrum (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 14	$1.10	7.4%	365	381.6	0.96×
MP7 \| Powercore (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 12	$0.87	7.1%	415	467.0	0.89×
G3SG1 \| High Seas (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 11	$0.70	6.3%	471	514.1	0.92×
M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 10	$0.64	5.9%	40	521.8	0.08×
Nova \| Toy Soldier (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 10	$0.58	5.3%	491	522.7	0.94×
Glock-18 \| Glockingbird (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 10	$0.55	5.0%	490	519.3	0.94×
Tec-9 \| Bamboozle (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 10	$0.53	4.8%	503	517.0	0.97×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

UMP-45 | Scaffold (Field-Tested)weapon · 3UnLuck ♿$1.39$1.250.90xnow

Tec-9 | Bamboozle (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedMAYO$1.39$0.530.38x31s

M4A1-S | Electrum (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ffHairoz^-^$1.39$1.050.76x3m

Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ffAlexMarch$1.39$0.560.40x4m

Nova | Toy Soldier (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedN0nameye$1.39$0.590.42x5m

M4A1-S | Electrum (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff地獄の深淵からの炎ア$1.39$1.050.76x5m

Sawed-Off | Serenity (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted地獄の深淵からの炎ア$1.39$2.001.44x6m

AUG | Stymphalian (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6地獄の深淵からの炎ア$1.39$3.302.37x6m

Tec-9 | Bamboozle (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedREACTIONV$1.39$0.490.35x1h

Nova | Toy Soldier (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedstar1y$1.39$0.580.42x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 75.95%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:55 UTC	$1.39	75.95%	30
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$1.39	75.73%	30
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$1.39	75.62%	30
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$1.39	75.50%	30
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$1.39	75.78%	29
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$1.39	76.23%	29
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$1.39	76.18%	29
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$1.39	76.18%	29
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$1.39	76.27%	29
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$1.39	76.39%	30
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$1.39	76.79%	29
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$1.39	76.66%	29
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$1.39	76.68%	29
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$1.39	76.79%	29

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed3 6.0%covert 0.0%restricted 49.3%classified 0.1%blue 0.0%#d32ee6 0.7%pink 0.3%#d32ce6 1.6%Legendary 0.4%#8847ff 17.7%Mythical 23.9%best hit —