AUG
A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$2.19
Advertised RTP
62.36%
EV $1.37 from 30 items
Observed RTP, 30d
68.47%
68 openings, odds method
Variance
0.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
32.7%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
93.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 68 openings and 22.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 68 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 62.36%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $2.19 | 62.36% | 30 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $2.19 | 62.23% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $2.19 | 62.27% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $2.19 | 62.43% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $2.19 | 62.71% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $2.19 | 62.70% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $2.19 | 62.68% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $2.19 | 62.66% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $2.19 | 62.79% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $2.19 | 63.21% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $2.19 | 63.20% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $2.19 | 63.10% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $2.19 | 63.23% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $2.19 | 63.21% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $2.19 | 63.13% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $2.19 | 63.20% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $2.19 | 63.18% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $2.19 | 63.22% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $2.19 | 63.19% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $2.19 | 63.17% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $2.19 | 63.10% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $2.19 | 63.15% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $2.19 | 63.48% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $2.19 | 63.54% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $2.19 | 63.35% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $2.19 | 63.16% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $2.19 | 63.22% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $2.19 | 63.17% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $2.19 | 63.21% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $2.19 | 63.21% | 30 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedmil spec 0.0%covert 0.0%restricted 18.2%milspec 0.1%uncommon 0.0%violet 8.8%#d32ee6 1.0%Legendary 0.0%classified 1.1%Rare 6.2%#8847ff 0.7%Common 7.3%industrial 3.7%#777777 3.9%Mythical 6.8%grey 13.8%Industrial 13.8%#4b69ff 14.6%best hit —