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A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$0.00

Advertised RTP

—

Observed RTP, 30d

—

no counted openings

Variance

—

needs odds

Tail share

—

needs odds

Below price

—

needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

No counted openings yetOpenings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	—	—	—
7d	—	—	—
30d	—	—	—
All	—	—	—

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values41 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Hot / cold
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 9,983	$6.32	1.0%	—
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 9,905	$3.53	0.6%	—
MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 9,891	$3.37	0.5%	—
P250 \| Supernova (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 9,660	$2.29	0.4%	—
Charm \| Die-cast AKcharm · #8847ff	1 in 9,654	$2.28	0.4%	—
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 9,275	$1.75	0.3%	—
XM1014 \| Seasons (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 8,151	$1.23	0.2%	—
Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 7,826	$1.15	0.2%	—
M4A4 \| Turbine (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 7,293	$1.04	0.2%	—
AWP \| Acheron (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 5,898	$0.84	0.2%	—
USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 5,395	$0.79	0.2%	—
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 4,327	$0.68	0.2%	—
Charm \| Glamour Shotcharm · uncommon	1 in 3,344	$0.59	0.3%	—
USP-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,171	$0.48	0.4%	—
SSG 08 \| Abyss (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,465	$0.41	0.4%	—
CZ75-Auto \| Polymer (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 1,333	$0.40	0.5%	—
UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 1,014	$0.36	0.6%	—
Tec-9 \| Brother (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 1,016	$0.36	0.6%	—
MP9 \| Modest Threat (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 477	$0.27	0.9%	—
Tec-9 \| Snek-9 (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 405	$0.25	1.0%	—
SCAR-20 \| Jungle Slipstream (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 388	$0.25	1.0%	—
Five-SeveN \| Scumbria (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 232	$0.21	1.4%	—
Charm \| Lil' SAScharm · #4b69ff	1 in 119	$0.16	2.1%	—
Charm \| Pocket AWPcharm · Rare	1 in 51	$0.11	3.4%	—
MP9 \| Black Sand (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 40	$0.10	3.9%	—
Glock-18 \| Winterized (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 39	$0.10	4.0%	—
P250 \| Cassette (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 23	$0.07	4.9%	—
MAC-10 \| Monkeyflage (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 21	$0.07	5.1%	—
Sticker \| Nemiga \| 2020 RMRsticker · 7	1 in 21	$0.07	5.0%	—
Charm \| Stitch-Loadedcharm · Rare	1 in 20	$0.07	5.2%	—
Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 18	$0.06	5.2%	—
MP9 \| Featherweight (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 18	$0.06	5.2%	—
USP-S \| Forest Leaves (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 18	$0.06	5.2%	—
SCAR-20 \| Fragments (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 17	$0.06	5.2%	—
P2000 \| Lifted Spirits (Field-Tested)weapon · 1	1 in 16	$0.05	5.2%	—
Sawed-Off \| Spirit Board (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 15	$0.05	5.1%	—
AUG \| Snake Pit (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	1 in 14	$0.04	5.0%	—
AUG \| Condemned (Field-Tested)weapon · #87c7ff	1 in 14	$0.04	4.8%	—
M249 \| Gator Mesh (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 14	$0.04	4.8%	—
XM1014 \| Hieroglyph (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	1 in 13	$0.04	4.6%	—
AUG \| Storm (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer	1 in 13	$0.04	4.6%	—

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P250 | Cassette (Field-Tested)weapon · milspecsashko$0$0.070.00x31m

Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Field-Tested)weapon · RareBloodHunter$0$0.060.00x33m

Sticker | Nemiga | 2020 RMRsticker · 7WhyNot?$0$0.070.00x38m

Sticker | Nemiga | 2020 RMRsticker · 7даня машинин$0$0.070.00x1h

P250 | Cassette (Field-Tested)weapon · milspecKINGSEFE$0$0.070.00x1h

MAC-10 | Monkeyflage (Field-Tested)weapon · milspecKINGSEFE$0$0.060.00x1h

SCAR-20 | Fragments (Field-Tested)weapon · blueCocaine user$0$0.060.00x1h

Sawed-Off | Spirit Board (Field-Tested)weapon · milspecleqvei$0$0.050.00x1h

Sawed-Off | Spirit Board (Field-Tested)weapon · milspecEosml7 SKINS$0$0.050.00x1h

P250 | Cassette (Field-Tested)weapon · milspecMaestro$0$0.070.00x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

No history yet

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$0	—	41
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$0	—	40
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$0	—	41
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$0	—	40
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$0	—	40
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$0	—	40
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$0	—	40
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$0	—	41
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$0	—	40
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$0	—	41
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$0	—	41
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$0	—	42
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$0	—	40
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$0	—	40
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$0	—	39
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0	—	40
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0	—	40
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$0	—	42
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$0	—	42
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0	—	41
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0	—	40
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$0	—	39
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$0	—	40
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$0	—	40
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$0	—	40
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$0	—	43
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$0	—	41
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$0	—	42
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$0	—	40
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$0	—	40

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 6.2%7 4.7%pink 0.0%Legendary 0.0%classified 0.0%Mythical 0.1%#8847ff 0.2%Rare 15.1%violet 0.0%restricted 0.1%#4b69ff 3.8%uncommon 0.0%mil spec 0.5%milspec 21.5%industrial 12.9%blue 5.8%consumer 21.8%#87c7ff 7.2%