AWP

A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$6.79

Advertised RTP

67.09%

EV $4.56 from 46 items

Observed RTP, 30d

66.42%

4,039 openings, odds method

Variance

13.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

29.8%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

87.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

68.30%±37.64359 openings

7 days

66.95%±12.163,116 openings

30 days

66.42%±11.134,039 openings

since tracking started

66.42%±11.134,039 openings

30.0%68.3%106.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	359	68.30%±37.6	+0.1σ	odds
7d	3,116	66.95%±12.2	−0.1σ	odds
30d	4,039	66.42%±11.1	−0.2σ	odds
All	4,039	66.42%±11.1	−0.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values46 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,068 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Gungnir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 199,997	$7,601	0.8%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 199,996	$6,731	0.7%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Medusa (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 199,957	$2,978	0.3%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| The Prince (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 199,895	$2,205	0.2%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Desert Hydra (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 198,673	$946	0.1%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 193,083	$540	0.1%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 189,264	$464	0.1%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 117,436	$200	0.0%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Silk Tiger (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 84,929	$161	0.0%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Graphite (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 50,385	$124	0.1%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 43,503	$116	0.1%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| CMYK (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 38,645	$110	0.1%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 25,749	$94.01	0.1%	1	0.2	—
AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 19,930	$85.34	0.1%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Snake Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 14,639	$76.23	0.1%	0	0.3	—
AWP \| Sovereign Flame (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 14,090	$75.18	0.1%	1	0.3	—
AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 6,079	$55.90	0.2%	0	0.7	—
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 4,753	$51.34	0.2%	1	0.9	—
AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 3,500	$46.21	0.3%	2	1.2	1.72×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 3,154	$44.58	0.3%	2	1.3	1.55×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,484	$41.07	0.4%	2	1.6	1.22×
AWP \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 2,447	$40.86	0.4%	2	1.7	1.20×
AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,803	$36.79	0.4%	1	2.3	0.44×
AWP \| LongDog (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 1,555	$34.97	0.5%	3	2.6	1.15×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,196	$31.94	0.6%	4	3.4	1.18×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,196	$31.94	0.6%	0	3.4	0.00×
AWP \| Electric Hive (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 811	$27.93	0.8%	9	5.0	1.79×
AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 410	$22.01	1.2%	10	9.9	1.01×
AWP \| Crakow! (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 321	$20.17	1.4%	12	12.7	0.95×
AWP \| Corticera (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 251	$18.46	1.6%	18	16.2	1.11×
AWP \| Sun in Leo (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 184	$16.47	2.0%	0	22.1	0.00×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 84	$12.20	3.2%	51	48.4	1.05×
AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 47	$9.51	4.5%	113	87.4	1.29×
AWP \| The End (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 37	$8.56	5.1%	124	110.0	1.13×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 25	$6.97	6.2%	167	164.0	1.02×
AWP \| POP AWP (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 19	$5.86	6.9%	99	217.6	0.45×
AWP \| Green Energy (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 19	$5.84	6.9%	239	218.4	1.09×
AWP \| Exoskeleton (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 14	$4.79	7.3%	223	281.2	0.79×
AWP \| Mortis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 13	$4.21	7.2%	0	317.0	0.00×
AWP \| Black Box (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 13	$4.17	7.2%	253	319.7	0.79×
AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 12	$3.63	6.9%	363	350.7	1.04×
AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 11	$3.00	6.1%	398	375.1	1.06×
AWP \| Black Nile (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 11	$2.61	5.3%	130	379.0	0.34×
AWP \| Worm God (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 11	$2.34	4.7%	367	374.4	0.98×
AWP \| Exothermic (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 11	$2.32	4.7%	426	373.8	1.14×
AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 11	$2.11	4.2%	165	364.9	0.45×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AWP | Atheris (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedchokh9$6.79$3.630.53x2m

AWP | Worm God (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ffchokh9$6.79$2.340.34x2m

AWP | Black Box (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedмаленький йода$6.79$4.170.61x3m

AWP | Duality (Field-Tested)weapon · pinkмаленький йода$6.79$3.000.44x4m

AWP | The End (Field-Tested)weapon · pinkмаленький йода$6.79$8.561.26x4m

AWP | Corticera (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedАгент Claude code$6.79$18.462.72x4m

AWP | Mortis (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedАгент Claude code$6.79$4.210.62x5m

AWP | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · pinkTrackL1ght$6.79$6.971.03x10m

AWP | POP AWP (Minimal Wear)weapon · violetTrackL1ght$6.79$5.860.86x10m

AWP | The End (Field-Tested)weapon · pinkТёплый$6.79$8.561.26x32m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 67.09%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:55 UTC	$6.79	67.09%	46
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$6.79	66.89%	46
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$6.79	66.75%	46
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$6.79	66.73%	47
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$6.79	66.99%	46
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$6.79	67.31%	46
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$6.79	67.30%	46
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$6.79	67.28%	46
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$6.79	67.34%	46
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$6.79	67.39%	46
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$6.79	67.79%	46
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$6.79	67.75%	46
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$6.79	67.75%	46
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$6.79	67.76%	46
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$6.79	67.77%	45
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$6.79	67.76%	46
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$6.79	67.79%	45
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$6.79	67.74%	45
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$6.79	67.74%	45
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$6.79	67.77%	45
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$6.79	67.76%	45
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$6.79	67.71%	45
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$6.79	67.77%	45
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$6.79	68.11%	45
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$6.79	68.12%	45
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$6.79	68.07%	45
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$6.79	67.77%	45
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$6.79	67.85%	45
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$6.79	67.87%	46
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$6.79	67.87%	46

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.2%classified 3.9%red 0.1%mil spec 0.0%rare 0.0%Ancient 0.1%restricted 32.8%pink 16.3%industrial 0.5%violet 5.3%#d32ce6 5.4%Legendary 7.8%Mil Spec Grade 9.3%#8847ff 18.2%best hit —