Baggage

A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$13.99

Advertised RTP

73.66%

EV $10.30 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d

227.63%

4 openings, odds method

Variance

0.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

26.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

86.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

4 openings · below min

30 days

4 openings · below min

since tracking started

4 openings · below min

74.0%193.5%313.0%

Small sample. 4 openings and 0.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	4	227.63%±84.5	—	odds
30d	4	227.63%±84.5	—	odds
All	4	227.63%±84.5	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Jet Set (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 11,589	$329	0.3%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| First Class (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 283	$91.11	3.1%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Pilot (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 147	$71.95	4.8%	0	0.0	—
Sawed-Off \| First Class (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 38	$42.41	10.9%	1	0.1	—
XM1014 \| Red Leather (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 28	$36.89	12.9%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Business Class (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 17	$28.76	16.5%	2	0.2	—
P2000 \| Coach Class (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	13.3%	$8.77	11.3%	0	0.5	—
MAC-10 \| Commuter (Field-Tested)weapon · Industrial Grade	13.2%	$8.58	11.0%	0	0.5	—
P90 \| Leather (Field-Tested)weapon · Industrial Grade	12.5%	$7.48	9.1%	0	0.5	—
SG 553 \| Traveler (Well-Worn)weapon · Industrial	11.4%	$6.30	7.0%	0	0.5	—
SSG 08 \| Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · Consumer Grade	1 in 10	$5.15	5.0%	0	0.4	—
G3SG1 \| Contractor (Field-Tested)weapon · Consumer Grade	1 in 12	$3.91	3.0%	0	0.3	—
CZ75-Auto \| Green Plaid (Field-Tested)weapon · Consumer Grade	1 in 15	$3.08	1.9%	0	0.3	—
MP9 \| Green Plaid (Field-Tested)weapon · Consumer Grade	1 in 16	$2.90	1.7%	0	0.2	—
MP7 \| Olive Plaid (Field-Tested)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 17	$2.67	1.5%	0	0.2	—

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

USP-S | Business Class (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specg0_0se$13.99$26.751.91x2d

XM1014 | Red Leather (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil speczaken1$13.99$38.812.77x2d

USP-S | Business Class (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specMijo55$13.99$27.061.93x5d

Sawed-Off | First Class (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specMijo55$13.99$34.762.48x5d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 73.66%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$13.99	73.66%	15
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$13.99	73.50%	15
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$13.99	73.46%	15
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$13.99	73.75%	15
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$13.99	74.08%	15
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$13.99	74.09%	15
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$13.99	74.06%	15
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$13.99	74.12%	15
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$13.99	74.20%	15
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$13.99	74.60%	15
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$13.99	74.57%	15
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$13.99	74.56%	15
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$13.99	74.59%	15
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$13.99	74.60%	15
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$13.99	74.60%	15
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$13.99	74.61%	15
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$13.99	74.59%	15
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$13.99	74.58%	15
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$13.99	74.60%	15
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$13.99	74.59%	15
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$13.99	74.54%	15
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$13.99	74.65%	15
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$13.99	74.99%	15
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$13.99	75.00%	15
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$13.99	74.91%	15
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$13.99	74.61%	15
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$13.99	74.69%	15
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$13.99	74.68%	15
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$13.99	74.70%	15
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$13.99	74.66%	15

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 0.0%restricted 1.0%mil spec 8.6%Rare 3.6%Uncommon 13.3%Industrial Grade 25.7%Industrial 11.4%Consumer Grade 30.7%#b0c3d9 5.7%best hit —