Bank

A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$0.18

Advertised RTP

74.84%

EV $0.13 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

196.29%

95 openings, odds method

Variance

1.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

20.6%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

79.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

9 openings · below min

7 days

91 openings · below min

30 days

95 openings · below min

since tracking started

95 openings · below min

74.0%145.8%217.5%

Small sample. 95 openings and 20.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	9	146.85%±64.5	—	odds
7d	91	190.13%±21.3	—	odds
30d	95	196.29%±20.8	—	odds
All	95	196.29%±20.8	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 95 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 576	$1.90	2.5%	2	0.2	—
P250 \| Franklin (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 544	$1.87	2.6%	1	0.2	—
Desert Eagle \| Meteorite (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 66	$0.88	9.8%	4	1.4	2.80×
Galil AR \| Tuxedo (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 36	$0.69	14.2%	14	2.6	5.32×
CZ75-Auto \| Tuxedo (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	16.0%	$0.21	24.8%	73	15.2	4.81×
MAC-10 \| Silver (Factory New)weapon · light blue	16.5%	$0.15	18.2%	0	15.6	0.00×
Nova \| Caged Steel (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	12.4%	$0.08	7.5%	0	11.8	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Death Rattle (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	12.4%	$0.08	7.6%	0	11.8	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Carbon Fiber (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	11.5%	$0.07	6.3%	0	10.9	0.00×
G3SG1 \| Green Apple (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 10	$0.06	4.3%	0	9.2	0.00×
Negev \| Army Sheen (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer	1 in 23	$0.03	0.8%	0	4.2	0.00×
MP7 \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	1 in 29	$0.02	0.5%	0	3.3	0.00×
Sawed-Off \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	1 in 33	$0.02	0.4%	0	2.9	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	1 in 36	$0.02	0.3%	0	2.6	0.00×
SG 553 \| Army Sheen (Minimal Wear)weapon · Common	1 in 57	$0.01	0.1%	0	1.7	0.00×
R8 Revolver \| Bone Mask (Field-Tested)weapon · Common	1 in 62	<$0.01	0.1%	0	1.5	0.00×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

CZ75-Auto | Tuxedo (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffdro4ila$0.18$0.211.16x52m

CZ75-Auto | Tuxedo (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffreTray$0.18$0.211.16x15h

CZ75-Auto | Tuxedo (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffGМАЙОНЕЗ$0.18$0.221.21x16h

CZ75-Auto | Tuxedo (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffd0nk0-$0.18$0.221.21x19h

Galil AR | Tuxedo (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specpudra$0.18$0.683.78x23h

CZ75-Auto | Tuxedo (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffPablo_Escobar$0.18$0.191.05x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 74.84%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$0.18	74.84%	16
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$0.18	74.61%	16
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$0.18	74.50%	16
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$0.18	74.83%	16
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$0.18	75.14%	16
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$0.18	75.20%	16
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$0.18	75.09%	16
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$0.18	75.14%	16
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$0.18	75.21%	16
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$0.18	75.75%	16
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$0.18	75.72%	16
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$0.18	75.67%	16
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$0.18	75.53%	16
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$0.18	75.62%	16
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$0.18	75.70%	16
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.18	75.59%	16
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.18	75.59%	16
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$0.18	75.52%	16
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$0.18	75.56%	16
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.18	75.68%	16
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.18	75.67%	16
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$0.18	75.89%	16
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$0.18	76.05%	16
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$0.18	76.00%	16
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$0.18	75.91%	16
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$0.18	75.65%	16
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$0.18	75.64%	16
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$0.18	75.82%	16
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$0.18	75.78%	16
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$0.18	75.64%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedMythical 0.2%classified 0.2%mil spec 4.3%#4b69ff 16.0%light blue 16.5%industrial 45.9%consumer 13.6%Common 3.3%best hit —