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A case on csgo.net, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$24.99

Advertised RTP

74.90%

EV $18.72 from 37 items

Observed RTP, 30d

80.55%

206 openings, sample method

Variance

0.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

25.4%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

74.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

30 openings · below min

7 days

189 openings · below min

30 days

206 openings · below min

since tracking started

206 openings · below min

70.5%92.2%114.0%

Small sample. 206 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	30	92.20%±21.3	—	odds
7d	189	81.20%±6.92	—	sample
30d	206	80.55%±6.62	—	sample
All	206	80.55%±6.62	—	sample

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values37 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 206 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 176,997	$1,122	0.0%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 134,056	$720	0.0%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 117,899	$641	0.0%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 72,102	$469	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 58,596	$424	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 58,528	$423	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 17,280	$259	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 5,343	$171	0.2%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 4,320	$159	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Field-Tested)gloves · rare	1 in 3,755	$152	0.2%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Graphite (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,823	$119	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Paracord Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,788	$118	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 1,241	$104	0.4%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,011	$97.20	0.5%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 968	$95.78	0.5%	0	0.2	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 466	$74.73	0.9%	0	0.4	—
M4A4 \| Hellfire (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 410	$71.54	0.9%	0	0.5	—
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)weapon · Covert	1 in 375	$69.40	1.0%	0	0.5	—
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 248	$60.24	1.3%	0	0.8	—
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 239	$59.52	1.3%	0	0.9	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · Covert	1 in 194	$55.35	1.5%	0	1.1	0.00×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 115	$46.18	2.2%	0	1.8	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 103	$44.54	2.3%	0	2.0	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 73	$39.37	2.9%	0	2.8	0.00×
P250 \| Apep's Curse (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 66	$37.95	3.1%	0	3.1	0.00×
FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 65	$37.83	3.1%	0	3.2	0.00×
★ Moto Gloves \| 3rd Commando Company (Field-Tested)gloves · Immortal	1 in 61	$36.97	3.2%	0	3.4	0.00×
AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 53	$35.07	3.6%	0	3.9	0.00×
USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 46	$33.40	3.9%	1	4.5	0.22×
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 46	$33.32	3.9%	0	4.5	0.00×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 41	$32.05	4.2%	0	5.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 33	$29.65	4.8%	0	6.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 31	$28.75	5.0%	1	6.7	0.15×
FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 19	$23.75	6.8%	0	11.1	0.00×
Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 12	$19.71	9.0%	0	17.6	0.00×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	23.8%	$11.93	15.2%	1	49.0	0.02×
P90 \| Shapewood (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	36.9%	$8.62	17.0%	1	76.0	0.01×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC.