Bitcoin
A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$80.99
Advertised RTP
76.73%
EV $62.14 from 34 items
Observed RTP, 30d
76.95%
69 openings, odds method
Variance
0.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
29.9%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
82.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 69 openings and 22.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 71 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 76.73%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $80.99 | 76.73% | 34 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $80.99 | 77.06% | 34 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $80.99 | 77.62% | 33 |
| 3 Nov, 08:08 UTC | $80.99 | 78.24% | 33 |
| 3 Nov, 05:56 UTC | $80.99 | 78.29% | 34 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 10.8%covert 48.4%sunny 0.1%epic 0.1%extraordinary 1.5%rare 1.5%red 7.3%Covert 8.9%pink 8.8%Immortal 4.5%Ancient 8.2%best hit —