Bitcoin
A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$2.69
Advertised RTP
76.96%
EV $2.07 from 46 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.69%
3,194 openings, odds method
Variance
2.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
40.8%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
78.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 77.45% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (81.10% – 92.28%, 3,194 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values46 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,293 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 76.96%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $2.69 | 76.96% | 46 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $2.69 | 77.49% | 46 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $2.69 | 77.53% | 46 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $2.69 | 77.54% | 46 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $2.69 | 77.65% | 46 |
| 4 Nov, 05:18 UTC | $2.69 | 77.78% | 46 |
| 3 Nov, 23:08 UTC | $2.69 | 77.76% | 46 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 20.2%covert 0.1%sunny 0.0%epic 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%rare 0.0%red 0.0%Covert 0.0%pink 41.9%Immortal 0.0%Ancient 0.0%#d32ee6 1.1%Legendary 13.1%Rare 23.6%best hit $438 (162.8x)