Bitcoin
A case on csgo.net, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$60.99
Advertised RTP
76.33%
EV $46.56 from 35 items
Observed RTP, 30d
80.31%
79 openings, odds method
Variance
0.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
35.4%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
81.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 79 openings and 25.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 85 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 76.33%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $60.99 | 76.33% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $60.99 | 76.82% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $60.99 | 77.31% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $60.99 | 77.73% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $60.99 | 77.41% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $60.99 | 77.41% | 35 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $60.99 | 77.69% | 35 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 15.3%covert 44.0%sunny 0.0%epic 0.0%extraordinary 0.4%rare 0.4%red 4.3%Covert 6.7%pink 11.1%Immortal 5.6%Ancient 12.2%best hit —