Bitcoin
A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$4.59
Advertised RTP
76.96%
EV $3.53 from 39 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.23%
1,803 openings, odds method
Variance
0.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
34.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 77.19% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (81.35% – 89.11%, 1,803 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values39 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,867 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 76.96%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $4.59 | 76.96% | 39 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $4.59 | 76.94% | 39 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $4.59 | 77.27% | 39 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $4.59 | 76.92% | 38 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $4.59 | 76.94% | 39 |
| 3 Nov, 04:13 UTC | $4.59 | 77.53% | 39 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.0%rare 0.0%covert 0.3%classified 4.0%red 0.0%Covert 0.0%pink 14.2%Immortal 0.0%Ancient 0.1%#d32ee6 4.8%Legendary 57.1%Rare 19.5%best hit —