Bitcoin
A case on csgo.net, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$16.99
Advertised RTP
73.96%
EV $12.56 from 39 items
Observed RTP, 30d
71.25%
325 openings, odds method
Variance
0.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
79.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values39 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 331 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 73.96%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $16.99 | 73.96% | 39 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $16.99 | 74.33% | 39 |
| 4 Nov, 08:09 UTC | $16.99 | 74.08% | 39 |
| 3 Nov, 09:10 UTC | $16.99 | 74.36% | 39 |
| 3 Nov, 07:37 UTC | $16.99 | 74.60% | 39 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 49.0%covert 5.5%sunny 0.0%epic 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%rare 0.0%red 0.2%Covert 0.4%pink 1.5%Immortal 0.8%Ancient 2.8%#d32ee6 39.8%best hit —