Bitcoin
A case on csgo.net, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$24.99
Advertised RTP
75.40%
EV $18.84 from 38 items
Observed RTP, 30d
72.77%
233 openings, odds method
Variance
0.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
25.7%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
69.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 236 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 75.40%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $24.99 | 75.40% | 38 |
| 4 Nov, 05:25 UTC | $24.99 | 75.69% | 38 |
| 3 Nov, 15:56 UTC | $24.99 | 75.75% | 38 |
| 3 Nov, 05:04 UTC | $24.99 | 76.09% | 38 |
| 3 Nov, 02:07 UTC | $24.99 | 76.09% | 38 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 66.1%covert 12.2%epic 0.0%sunny 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%rare 0.0%red 0.5%Covert 0.8%pink 3.0%Immortal 1.6%Ancient 5.4%#d32ee6 10.3%best hit —