Bitcoin
A case on csgo.net, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$3.89
Advertised RTP
75.62%
EV $2.94 from 45 items
Observed RTP, 30d
82.98%
2,163 openings, sample method
Variance
1.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
33.7%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
87.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 76.56% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (80.24% – 85.72%, 2,163 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values45 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,163 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 75.62%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $3.89 | 75.62% | 45 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $3.89 | 76.71% | 44 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 27.3%covert 0.1%sunny 0.0%epic 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%rare 0.0%red 0.0%Covert 0.0%pink 10.9%Immortal 0.0%Ancient 0.1%#d32ee6 3.0%Legendary 29.5%Rare 29.1%best hit —