Bitcoin
A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$60.99
Advertised RTP
76.16%
EV $46.45 from 35 items
Observed RTP, 30d
71.45%
98 openings, odds method
Variance
0.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
35.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
81.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 98 openings and 31.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 98 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 76.16%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $60.99 | 76.16% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $60.99 | 77.31% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $60.99 | 77.41% | 35 |
| 3 Nov, 10:09 UTC | $60.99 | 77.74% | 35 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $60.99 | 77.99% | 35 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 15.2%covert 43.6%epic 0.0%sunny 0.0%extraordinary 0.4%rare 0.4%red 4.4%Covert 6.8%pink 11.2%Immortal 5.7%Ancient 12.3%best hit —