Черная коллекция

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$2.09

Advertised RTP

62.99%

EV $1.32 from 34 items

Observed RTP, 30d

62.29%

1,316 openings, odds method

Variance

0.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

35.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

89.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

61.67%±11.87105 openings

7 days

62.83%±3.551,198 openings

30 days

62.29%±3.411,316 openings

since tracking started

62.29%±3.411,316 openings

49.0%61.5%74.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	105	61.67%±11.9	−0.2σ	odds
7d	1,198	62.83%±3.55	−0.4σ	odds
30d	1,316	62.29%±3.41	−0.7σ	odds
All	1,316	62.29%±3.41	−0.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,316 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 193,453	$171	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 173,109	$103	0.0%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 146,308	$77.05	0.0%	0	0.0	—
USP-S \| Dark Water (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 100,491	$55.33	0.0%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 100,008	$55.15	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Gut Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 90,960	$51.92	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 52,680	$39.13	0.1%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 45,833	$36.79	0.1%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 37,089	$33.66	0.1%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 16,030	$24.41	0.1%	1	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 8,859	$19.76	0.2%	0	0.1	—
Galil AR \| Blue Titanium (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 4,150	$15.20	0.3%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Cartel (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 4,068	$15.09	0.3%	2	0.3	—
FAMAS \| Djinn (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 2,229	$12.28	0.4%	2	0.6	—
SCAR-20 \| Splash Jam (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,881	$11.59	0.5%	0	0.7	—
P250 \| Cartel (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,120	$9.71	0.7%	4	1.2	3.41×
AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,057	$9.51	0.7%	3	1.2	2.41×
Nova \| Graphite (Minimal Wear)weapon · Restricted	1 in 719	$8.33	0.9%	3	1.8	1.64×
P250 \| Black & Tan (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 482	$7.26	1.1%	0	2.7	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 459	$7.13	1.2%	6	2.9	2.09×
Dual Berettas \| Black Limba (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 185	$5.17	2.1%	6	7.1	0.84×
AWP \| Exoskeleton (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 150	$4.79	2.4%	19	8.8	2.16×
AK-47 \| Slate (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 84	$3.85	3.5%	28	15.7	1.78×
AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 56	$3.28	4.5%	0	23.6	0.00×
G3SG1 \| Stinger (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 41	$2.90	5.3%	39	31.9	1.22×
AWP \| Black Nile (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 33	$2.61	6.1%	22	40.3	0.55×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 15	$1.74	8.9%	57	88.8	0.64×
CZ75-Auto \| Hexane (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 12	$1.46	9.6%	73	114.2	0.64×
Glock-18 \| Night (Field-Tested)weapon · Industrial Grade	1 in 11	$1.38	9.7%	0	122.2	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Meteorite (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	12.7%	$0.90	8.7%	140	167.3	0.84×
USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	12.9%	$0.87	8.5%	265	169.2	1.57×
MP7 \| Amberline (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	12.9%	$0.84	8.3%	219	170.3	1.29×
CZ75-Auto \| Twist (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	13.0%	$0.81	8.0%	117	171.7	0.68×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	13.1%	$0.76	7.6%	257	172.6	1.49×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A1-S | Night Terror (Minimal Wear)weapon · MythicalMaestro$2.09$0.760.36x8m

M4A1-S | Night Terror (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythicalvinbenzin$2.09$0.760.36x35m

CZ75-Auto | Hexane (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specхаус$2.09$1.460.70x46m

USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythicalϟ smaker ϟ$2.09$0.870.42x47m

G3SG1 | Stinger (Field-Tested)weapon · violetrukm4NN$2.09$2.901.39x55m

G3SG1 | Stinger (Field-Tested)weapon · violetxEGG$2.09$2.901.39x1h

M4A1-S | Night Terror (Minimal Wear)weapon · MythicalxEGG$2.09$0.760.36x1h

Desert Eagle | Meteorite (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specxEGG$2.09$0.900.43x1h

M4A1-S | Night Terror (Minimal Wear)weapon · MythicalxEGG$2.09$0.760.36x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 62.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:55 UTC	$2.09	62.99%	34
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$2.09	62.84%	34
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$2.09	62.67%	34
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$2.09	62.62%	34
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$2.09	62.96%	34
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$2.09	63.24%	34
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$2.09	63.21%	34
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$2.09	63.15%	34
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$2.09	63.21%	34
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$2.09	63.29%	34
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$2.09	63.68%	34
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$2.09	63.68%	34
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$2.09	63.62%	34
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$2.09	63.63%	34
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$2.09	63.69%	34
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$2.09	63.53%	34
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$2.09	63.59%	34
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$2.09	63.62%	35
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$2.09	63.62%	35
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$2.09	63.66%	34
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$2.09	63.67%	34
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$2.09	63.61%	34
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$2.09	63.67%	34
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$2.09	64.00%	34
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$2.09	63.99%	34
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$2.09	63.89%	34
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$2.09	63.63%	34
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$2.09	63.72%	34
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$2.09	63.74%	34
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$2.09	63.65%	34

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%restricted 0.7%classified 0.3%mil spec 22.0%#d32ee6 0.0%Restricted 0.1%milspec 0.2%#8847ff 0.2%Mythical 27.2%Uncommon 1.8%violet 15.4%Mil Spec Grade 3.1%Rare 19.8%Industrial Grade 9.3%best hit —