BLAST Open Porto 2026

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$0.61

Advertised RTP

81.03%

EV $0.49 from 29 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.28%

705 openings, odds method

Variance

0.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

37.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

84.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

65 openings · below min

7 days

87.36%±6.16593 openings

30 days

87.28%±5.72705 openings

since tracking started

87.28%±5.72705 openings

76.5%95.2%114.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	65	95.24%±17.9	—	odds
7d	593	87.36%±6.16	+1.8σ	odds
30d	705	87.28%±5.72	+1.9σ	odds
All	705	87.28%±5.72	+1.9σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 706 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 9,722	$19.26	0.4%	0	0.1	—
Charm \| Hot Howlcharm · Ancient	1 in 9,696	$18.69	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 9,011	$12.30	0.3%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| Cartel (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 8,176	$9.71	0.2%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 7,079	$7.90	0.2%	0	0.1	—
MP7 \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 5,690	$6.45	0.2%	1	0.1	—
MP9 \| Hydra (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 5,335	$6.15	0.2%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Green Energy (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 4,952	$5.84	0.2%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| Kintsugi (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 4,318	$5.36	0.3%	1	0.2	—
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 1,708	$3.46	0.4%	2	0.4	—
M4A4 \| Griffin (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,068	$2.88	0.5%	1	0.7	—
USP-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 846	$2.64	0.6%	1	0.8	—
Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 624	$2.36	0.8%	1	1.1	0.88×
Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 298	$1.80	1.2%	2	2.4	0.84×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 269	$1.74	1.3%	3	2.6	1.14×
MP9 \| Goo (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 81	$1.12	2.8%	15	8.7	1.72×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 67	$1.05	3.2%	11	10.5	1.05×
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 69	$1.05	3.1%	17	10.3	1.65×
SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 52	$0.95	3.7%	12	13.6	0.89×
CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 29	$0.75	5.2%	10	24.2	0.41×
M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 21	$0.64	6.3%	57	34.4	1.66×
Glock-18 \| Glockingbird (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 15	$0.55	7.4%	63	47.2	1.34×
Charm \| Dr. Briancharm · #8847ff	1 in 14	$0.53	7.6%	62	49.9	1.24×
USP-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 13	$0.51	7.8%	63	53.3	1.18×
AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 10	$0.44	8.6%	43	68.8	0.63×
Charm \| Hang Loosecharm · #8847ff	12.0%	$0.38	9.2%	84	85.0	0.99×
UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	12.8%	$0.36	9.3%	76	90.1	0.84×
AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	13.4%	$0.34	9.3%	37	94.3	0.39×
P250 \| Valence (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	15.1%	$0.30	9.2%	51	106.9	0.48×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AK-47 | Wintergreen (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffDejvo$0.61$0.440.72x18m

Charm | Dr. Briancharm · #8847ffЕгорёк)$0.61$0.540.89x21m

M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythicalgggdanli9$0.61$0.540.89x40m

Desert Eagle | Calligraffitiweapon · milspeckl1zix$0.61$0.300.50x56m

Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ffMr_KoT$0.61$0.560.92x59m

USP-S | Flashback (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedMr_KoT$0.61$0.510.84x59m

Charm | Hang Loosecharm · #8847ffMr_KoT$0.61$0.400.66x1h

CZ75-Auto | Eco (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedMr_KoT$0.61$0.751.23x1h

USP-S | Flashback (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedMr_KoT$0.61$0.510.84x1h

Charm | Hang Loosecharm · #8847ffMr_KoT$0.61$0.400.66x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 81.03%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:55 UTC	$0.61	81.03%	29
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$0.61	80.68%	30
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$0.61	80.59%	30
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$0.61	80.50%	30
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$0.61	80.89%	30
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$0.61	81.22%	30
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$0.61	81.22%	30
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$0.61	81.14%	30
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$0.61	81.28%	30
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$0.61	81.32%	30
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$0.61	81.83%	30
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$0.61	81.74%	30
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$0.61	81.70%	30
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$0.61	81.79%	30
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$0.61	81.83%	29
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$0.61	81.72%	29
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.61	81.76%	30
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.61	81.74%	30
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$0.61	81.79%	29
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$0.61	81.79%	29
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.61	81.84%	29
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.61	81.84%	30
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$0.61	81.84%	30
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$0.61	82.24%	30
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$0.61	82.22%	30
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$0.61	82.11%	30
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$0.61	81.80%	30
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$0.61	81.87%	30
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$0.61	81.81%	30
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$0.61	81.91%	30

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 0.2%Ancient 0.0%pink 0.1%restricted 12.6%#d32ce6 0.0%Legendary 0.1%violet 1.6%Mythical 6.4%Rare 0.4%#8847ff 40.5%#4b69ff 9.7%blue 28.5%best hit —