Кровавый жнец
A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$29.99
Advertised RTP
66.94%
EV $20.07 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
113.10%
133 openings, odds method
Variance
1.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
12.4%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 67.45% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (90.01% – 136.19%, 133 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 133 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 66.94%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $29.99 | 66.94% | 12 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $29.99 | 66.75% | 12 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $29.99 | 66.59% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $29.99 | 66.57% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $29.99 | 66.83% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $29.99 | 67.13% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $29.99 | 67.13% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $29.99 | 67.12% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $29.99 | 67.19% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $29.99 | 67.24% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $29.99 | 67.62% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $29.99 | 67.59% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $29.99 | 67.59% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $29.99 | 67.61% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $29.99 | 67.60% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $29.99 | 67.61% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $29.99 | 67.62% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $29.99 | 67.59% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $29.99 | 67.60% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $29.99 | 67.62% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $29.99 | 67.61% | 12 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $29.99 | 67.54% | 12 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $29.99 | 67.67% | 12 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $29.99 | 67.96% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $29.99 | 67.98% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $29.99 | 67.88% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $29.99 | 67.62% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $29.99 | 67.69% | 12 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $29.99 | 67.69% | 12 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $29.99 | 67.71% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 17.5%extraordinary 2.0%#4b69ff 80.5%best hit —