Blossom mining
A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$0.07
Advertised RTP
65.71%
EV $0.05 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
17052.01%
1,437 openings, odds method
Variance
103.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 565
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 1,437 openings and 2.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,437 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glock-18 | Gold Toof (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient | 1 in 10,679 | $30.29 | 6.2% | 13 | 0.1 | — |
| Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary | 1 in 4,885 | $19.86 | 8.8% | 95 | 0.3 | — |
| AWP | Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 1,395 | $12.20 | 19.0% | 256 | 1.0 | 248.58× |
| AK-47 | Point Disarray (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 1,325 | $11.98 | 19.7% | 319 | 1.1 | 294.24× |
| P250 | Cartel (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 728 | $9.71 | 29.0% | 618 | 2.0 | 313.09× |
| AUG | Commando Company (Minimal Wear)weapon · #b0c3d9 | 99.7% | <$0.01 | 17.3% | 0 | 1432.5 | 0.00× |
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 65.71%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $0.07 | 65.71% | 6 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.07 | 64.59% | 6 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.07 | 64.30% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.07 | 64.33% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.07 | 65.80% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.07 | 66.03% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.07 | 66.03% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.07 | 66.02% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.07 | 65.39% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.07 | 65.45% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.07 | 65.77% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.07 | 65.75% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.07 | 65.73% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.07 | 65.76% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.07 | 65.75% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.07 | 65.76% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.07 | 65.77% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.07 | 65.74% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.07 | 65.75% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.07 | 66.00% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.07 | 66.14% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.07 | 65.71% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.07 | 65.84% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.07 | 66.88% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.07 | 66.52% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.07 | 66.18% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.07 | 65.99% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.07 | 65.84% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.07 | 65.93% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.07 | 66.28% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedAncient 0.0%Legendary 0.0%classified 0.3%#b0c3d9 99.7%best hit —