Синяя коллекция
A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$0.05
Advertised RTP
52.16%
EV $0.03 from 33 items
Observed RTP, 30d
162.38%
877 openings, odds method
Variance
0.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
29.9%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
92.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 53.19% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (159.06% – 165.70%, 877 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values33 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 878 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 52.16%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.05 | 52.16% | 33 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.05 | 52.29% | 33 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.05 | 52.80% | 33 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.05 | 52.56% | 34 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.05 | 52.92% | 34 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.05 | 53.09% | 34 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.05 | 52.76% | 33 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.05 | 52.30% | 32 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.05 | 52.88% | 33 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.05 | 53.09% | 33 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.05 | 53.27% | 33 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.05 | 53.48% | 34 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.05 | 53.20% | 33 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.05 | 53.22% | 32 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.05 | 53.21% | 32 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.05 | 53.62% | 33 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.05 | 52.95% | 32 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.05 | 53.22% | 33 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.05 | 53.31% | 33 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.05 | 53.49% | 34 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.05 | 53.05% | 34 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.05 | 53.58% | 33 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.05 | 53.19% | 33 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.05 | 53.70% | 33 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.05 | 53.80% | 32 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.05 | 53.62% | 33 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.05 | 53.23% | 33 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.05 | 53.09% | 33 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.05 | 53.31% | 33 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $0.05 | 53.05% | 33 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed1 0.0%2 3.6%classified 0.0%violet 0.0%pink 0.0%#8847ff 0.0%restricted 0.0%milspec 3.8%mil spec 0.0%uncommon 0.0%Rare 1.1%#4b69ff 1.8%blue 0.4%industrial 7.9%Consumer 11.4%consumer 53.0%#5e98d9 17.1%best hit —