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Блю гем мания

A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price
$60.99
Advertised RTP
69.95%
EV $42.67 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
64.59%
378 openings, odds method
Variance
0.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
21.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
79.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
81 openings · below min
7 days
65.30%±8.59345 openings
30 days
64.59%±8.21378 openings
since tracking started
64.59%±8.21378 openings
44.5%63.0%81.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h8162.84%±17.8—odds
7d34565.30%±8.59−1.2σodds
30d37864.59%±8.21−1.5σodds
All37864.59%±8.21−1.5σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 378 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Karambit | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 4,929$7200.3%00.1—
★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · gold1 in 3,865$6630.4%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife1 in 1,632$4950.7%00.2—
★ Talon Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 834$3951.1%00.5—
★ Skeleton Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 184$2373.0%12.10.49×
★ Stiletto Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · gold1 in 135$2143.7%22.80.72×
AK-47 | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 119$2054.0%13.20.32×
★ Flip Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal1 in 44$1467.7%78.50.82×
★ Gut Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 16$10115.1%2524.01.04×
★ Paracord Knife | Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert10.1%$85.2820.1%938.10.24×
★ Hydra Gloves | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary33.0%$52.9440.9%130124.61.04×
Five-SeveN | Heat Treated (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet46.0%$2.662.9%44173.80.25×
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
★ Gut Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covertThe Lupa$60.99$93.871.54x
★ Hydra Gloves | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinaryDaredevil$60.99$53.360.87x
Five-SeveN | Heat Treated (Minimal Wear)weapon · violetDaredevil$60.99$2.660.04x
Five-SeveN | Heat Treated (Minimal Wear)weapon · violetDaredevil$60.99$2.660.04x
Five-SeveN | Heat Treated (Minimal Wear)weapon · violetDaredevil$60.99$2.660.04x
★ Hydra Gloves | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinaryDaredevil$60.99$53.360.87x
Five-SeveN | Heat Treated (Minimal Wear)weapon · violetDaredevil$60.99$2.660.04x
★ Hydra Gloves | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinaryDaredevil$60.99$53.360.87x
Five-SeveN | Heat Treated (Minimal Wear)weapon · violetDaredevil$60.99$2.660.04x
★ Paracord Knife | Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covertDaredevil$60.99$85.301.40x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 69.95%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC$60.9969.95%12
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC$60.9969.80%12
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC$60.9969.78%12
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC$60.9970.05%12
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC$60.9970.35%12
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC$60.9970.36%12
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC$60.9970.35%12
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC$60.9970.41%12
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC$60.9970.46%12
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC$60.9970.86%12
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC$60.9970.83%12
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC$60.9970.83%12
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC$60.9970.86%12
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC$60.9970.86%12
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC$60.9970.85%12
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC$60.9970.86%12
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC$60.9970.84%12
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC$60.9970.84%12
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC$60.9970.85%12
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC$60.9970.85%12
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC$60.9970.79%12
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC$60.9970.90%12
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC$60.9971.23%12
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC$60.9971.24%12
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC$60.9971.15%12
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC$60.9970.86%12
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC$60.9970.95%12
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC$60.9970.94%12
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC$60.9970.95%12
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC$60.9970.92%12
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 17.1%gold 0.8%covert knife 0.1%classified 0.8%Immortal 2.3%extraordinary 33.0%violet 46.0%best hit —