Operation Breakout Weapon Case

A case on csgo.net (Standard), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$4.09

Advertised RTP

66.51%

EV $2.72 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d

67.85%

751 openings, odds method

Variance

2.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

52.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

97.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

72.52%±20.14221 openings

7 days

68.39%±11.32728 openings

30 days

67.85%±11.15751 openings

since tracking started

67.85%±11.15751 openings

51.5%72.5%93.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	221	72.52%±20.1	+0.6σ	odds
7d	728	68.39%±11.3	+0.2σ	odds
30d	751	67.85%±11.2	+0.1σ	odds
All	751	67.85%±11.2	+0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 751 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 199,545	$1,885	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 198,021	$1,151	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 166,439	$423	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 161,117	$398	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 157,390	$383	0.1%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 53,431	$177	0.1%	0	0.0	—
P90 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 45,518	$165	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 110	$19.57	6.6%	8	6.9	1.17×
Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 106	$19.36	6.7%	9	7.1	1.27×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 101	$19.00	6.9%	12	7.4	1.61×
PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	24.7%	$2.35	21.3%	119	185.4	0.64×
P250 \| Supernova (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	24.6%	$2.29	20.7%	191	184.4	1.04×
CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	24.0%	$2.09	18.4%	92	180.0	0.51×
Nova \| Koi (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	23.9%	$2.08	18.3%	175	179.8	0.97×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

CZ75-Auto | Tigris (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedRico$4.09$2.230.55x1h

Nova | Koi (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedRico$4.09$1.960.48x1h

PP-Bizon | Osiris (Minimal Wear)weapon · violetRico$4.09$2.350.57x1h

Nova | Koi (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedRico$4.09$1.960.48x1h

PP-Bizon | Osiris (Minimal Wear)weapon · violetTigriski$4.09$2.350.57x4h

CZ75-Auto | Tigris (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedTigriski$4.09$2.090.51x4h

Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedTigriski$4.09$19.574.78x4h

Nova | Koi (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedTigriski$4.09$2.080.51x4h

CZ75-Auto | Tigris (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedTigriski$4.09$2.090.51x4h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 66.51%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$4.09	66.51%	14
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$4.09	66.38%	14
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$4.09	66.45%	14
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$4.09	66.62%	14
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$4.09	66.97%	14
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$4.09	66.92%	14
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$4.09	66.92%	14
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$4.09	66.91%	14
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$4.09	67.04%	14
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$4.09	67.38%	14
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$4.09	67.38%	14
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$4.09	67.35%	14
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$4.09	67.37%	14
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$4.09	67.45%	14
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$4.09	67.41%	14
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$4.09	67.43%	14
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$4.09	67.37%	14
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$4.09	67.40%	14
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$4.09	67.44%	14
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$4.09	67.49%	14
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$4.09	67.39%	14
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$4.09	67.46%	14
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$4.09	67.78%	14
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$4.09	67.73%	14
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$4.09	67.70%	14
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$4.09	67.43%	14
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$4.09	67.49%	14
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$4.09	67.52%	14
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$4.09	67.56%	14
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$4.09	67.48%	14

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%gold 0.0%classified 1.9%Legendary 1.0%violet 24.7%Mythical 24.6%restricted 47.9%best hit —