Cache

A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$6.79

Advertised RTP

76.04%

EV $5.16 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d

145.43%

10 openings, odds method

Variance

0.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

22.7%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

68.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

1 openings · below min

7 days

9 openings · below min

30 days

10 openings · below min

since tracking started

10 openings · below min

-0.5%136.3%273.0%

Small sample. 10 openings and 2.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1	127.84%±144.3	—	odds
7d	9	148.13%±39.1	—	odds
30d	10	145.43%±37.7	—	odds
All	10	145.43%±37.7	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Galil AR \| Cerberus (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 89	$22.90	5.0%	0	0.1	—
Tec-9 \| Toxic (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 37	$16.26	8.5%	0	0.3	—
MAC-10 \| Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 34	$15.64	8.9%	0	0.3	—
Glock-18 \| Reactor (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 22	$12.80	11.4%	1	0.5	—
MP9 \| Setting Sun (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 20	$12.39	11.8%	0	0.5	—
XM1014 \| Bone Machine (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 16	$10.81	13.4%	4	0.6	—
FAMAS \| Styx (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 11	$8.76	15.3%	5	0.9	—
Negev \| Nuclear Waste (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	12.8%	$2.27	5.6%	0	1.3	0.00×
AUG \| Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	12.3%	$2.13	5.1%	0	1.2	0.00×
Five-SeveN \| Hot Shot (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	11.9%	$2.03	4.7%	0	1.2	0.00×
PP-Bizon \| Chemical Green (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	11.3%	$1.87	4.1%	0	1.1	0.00×
P250 \| Contamination (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	10.5%	$1.70	3.5%	0	1.0	0.00×
SG 553 \| Fallout Warning (Field-Tested)weapon · light blue	1 in 11	$1.50	2.8%	0	0.9	—

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

FAMAS | Styx (Field-Tested)weapon · violetdust2 pick = troll game$6.79$8.681.28x14h

XM1014 | Bone Machine (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specSEvER$6.79$11.471.69x1d

Glock-18 | Reactor (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specAlatei$6.79$12.421.83x1d

XM1014 | Bone Machine (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specnmm45g!$6.79$12.821.89x1d

FAMAS | Styx (Field-Tested)weapon · violetg0_0se$6.79$8.541.26x2d

FAMAS | Styx (Field-Tested)weapon · violetScrudge MadCock$6.79$8.471.25x5d

XM1014 | Bone Machine (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specSniG_DP$6.79$9.741.43x5d

XM1014 | Bone Machine (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specArm0gen$6.79$9.821.45x6d

FAMAS | Styx (Field-Tested)weapon · violet𝙎𝞓𝙇$6.79$8.561.26x6d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 76.04%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$6.79	76.04%	13
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$6.79	75.85%	13
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$6.79	75.83%	13
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$6.79	76.17%	8
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$6.79	76.45%	8
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$6.79	76.47%	8
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$6.79	76.46%	9
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$6.79	76.50%	9
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$6.79	76.61%	9
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$6.79	77.02%	9
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$6.79	76.95%	9
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$6.79	77.00%	8
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$6.79	77.00%	8
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$6.79	77.01%	13
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$6.79	76.95%	8
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$6.79	76.99%	8
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$6.79	76.95%	8
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$6.79	77.02%	8
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$6.79	77.01%	8
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$6.79	77.00%	13
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$6.79	76.94%	13
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$6.79	77.06%	13
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$6.79	77.40%	13
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$6.79	77.44%	13
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$6.79	77.28%	8
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$6.79	76.97%	8
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$6.79	77.12%	13
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$6.79	77.09%	13
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$6.79	77.09%	13
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$6.79	77.09%	13

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedrestricted 1.1%mil spec 21.5%violet 9.0%industrial 48.3%Uncommon 10.5%light blue 9.5%best hit —