Call of Duty: Warzone

A case on csgo.net (Limited edition), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$6.79

Advertised RTP

76.03%

EV $5.16 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d

79.04%

8,599 openings, odds method

Variance

1.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

30.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

77.40%±5.861,740 openings

7 days

79.45%±3.267,268 openings

30 days

79.04%±2.968,599 openings

since tracking started

79.04%±2.968,599 openings

71.0%77.5%84.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,740	77.40%±5.86	+0.5σ	odds
7d	7,268	79.45%±3.26	+1.7σ	odds
30d	8,599	79.04%±2.96	+1.5σ	odds
All	8,599	79.04%±2.96	+1.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,616 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 498	$162	6.3%	24	17.3	1.39×
AK-47 \| AUTOEXEC (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 489	$81.94	3.2%	18	17.6	1.02×
Glock-18 \| Fully Tuned (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 457	$51.36	2.2%	12	18.9	0.64×
USP-S \| Whiteout (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 376	$33.79	1.7%	26	22.9	1.14×
M4A4 \| Falak (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 102	$14.35	2.7%	86	84.4	1.02×
AWP \| The End (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 29	$8.35	5.5%	282	292.7	0.96×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 24	$7.60	6.2%	286	360.3	0.79×
USP-S \| Stainless (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 17	$6.41	7.4%	260	514.7	0.51×
Desert Eagle \| Heirloom (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 15	$6.09	7.8%	593	570.2	1.04×
P250 \| Kintsugi (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 12	$5.38	8.6%	744	715.0	1.04×
UMP-45 \| Metal Flowers (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	10.0%	$4.81	9.3%	703	862.1	0.82×
AWP \| Exoskeleton (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	10.7%	$4.60	9.5%	829	921.8	0.90×
AUG \| Stymphalian (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	14.1%	$3.72	10.1%	203	1212.7	0.17×
SSG 08 \| Parallax (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	17.0%	$2.98	9.8%	335	1466.9	0.23×
AK-47 \| Safety Net (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	17.9%	$2.74	9.5%	1,415	1538.4	0.92×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P250 | Kintsugi (Field-Tested)weapon · pinkϟ smaker ϟ$6.79$5.360.79xnow

AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested)weapon · pinkTrackL1ght$6.79$5.350.79x2m

AK-47 | Safety Net (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedViP$6.79$2.700.40x7m

P250 | Kintsugi (Field-Tested)weapon · pinkThe oNe$6.79$5.360.79x7m

AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested)weapon · pinkViP$6.79$5.350.79x8m

AWP | Exoskeleton (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedViP$6.79$5.000.74x9m

UMP-45 | Metal Flowers (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec🐻❤Sangirqa❤🐻$6.79$4.690.69x18m

SSG 08 | Parallax (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ffdeed$6.79$2.970.44x18m

SSG 08 | Parallax (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ffHypE$6.79$2.970.44x18m

SSG 08 | Parallax (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ffdeed$6.79$2.970.44x18m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 76.03%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$6.79	76.03%	15
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$6.79	75.88%	15
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$6.79	75.86%	14
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$6.79	76.14%	14
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$6.79	76.47%	15
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$6.79	76.46%	15
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$6.79	76.43%	15
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$6.79	76.51%	14
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$6.79	76.59%	14
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$6.79	76.98%	14
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$6.79	76.97%	14
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$6.79	76.96%	14
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$6.79	77.00%	13
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$6.79	77.01%	14
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$6.79	77.02%	15
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$6.79	77.04%	14
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$6.79	77.00%	14
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$6.79	77.01%	15
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$6.79	76.99%	14
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$6.79	77.01%	14
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$6.79	76.93%	15
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$6.79	77.05%	15
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$6.79	77.43%	15
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$6.79	76.97%	14
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$6.79	77.09%	12
4 Nov, 08:09 UTC	$6.79	77.15%	13
4 Nov, 07:05 UTC	$6.79	77.24%	13
4 Nov, 05:18 UTC	$6.79	77.27%	13
3 Nov, 23:08 UTC	$6.79	77.24%	12
3 Nov, 16:38 UTC	$6.79	77.36%	13

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.2%red 0.4%classified 0.3%pink 16.9%#4b69ff 6.0%violet 6.6%mil spec 10.0%restricted 28.6%#d32ee6 14.1%#8847ff 17.0%best hit —