Карнавальный кошмар
A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$0.67
Advertised RTP
75.66%
EV $0.51 from 30 items
Observed RTP, 30d
80.13%
62K openings, odds method
Variance
0.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
37.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 76.56% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (79.47% – 80.79%, 62,040 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 62.1K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 75.66%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.67 | 75.66% | 30 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.67 | 75.45% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.67 | 75.35% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.67 | 75.86% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.67 | 76.11% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.67 | 76.12% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.67 | 76.09% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.67 | 76.10% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.67 | 76.19% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.67 | 76.64% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.67 | 76.65% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.67 | 76.61% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.67 | 76.58% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.67 | 76.51% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.67 | 76.60% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.67 | 76.64% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.67 | 76.65% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.67 | 76.57% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.67 | 76.61% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.67 | 76.65% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.67 | 76.53% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.67 | 76.58% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.67 | 77.01% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.67 | 76.98% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.67 | 76.97% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.67 | 76.72% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.67 | 76.74% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.67 | 76.81% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.67 | 76.72% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $0.67 | 76.73% | 30 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 0.1%Legendary 0.1%pink 0.1%rare 0.0%restricted 8.5%mil spec 11.3%Mythical 9.5%Rare 0.5%#8847ff 7.6%#4b69ff 23.8%violet 38.5%best hit —