Cheap knife mining
A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$0.53
Advertised RTP
62.04%
EV $0.33 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
8476.21%
1,284 openings, odds method
Variance
49.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 221
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 62.74% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (8437.74% – 8514.68%, 1,284 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,286 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Paracord Knife | Stained (Field-Tested)knife · #ffd700 | 1 in 749 | $53.24 | 21.6% | 251 | 1.7 | 146.24× |
| ★ Bowie Knife | Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife | 1 in 672 | $48.93 | 22.1% | 340 | 1.9 | 177.66× |
| ★ Kukri Knife | Night Stripe (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife | 1 in 586 | $44.63 | 23.2% | 318 | 2.2 | 144.89× |
| ★ Navaja Knife | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · gold | 1 in 444 | $38.14 | 26.1% | 350 | 2.9 | 120.88× |
| Sawed-Off | Snake Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 60.0% | $0.03 | 4.9% | 0 | 772.0 | 0.00× |
| AUG | Contractor (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 39.3% | $0.02 | 2.0% | 0 | 505.3 | 0.00× |
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 62.04%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.53 | 62.04% | 6 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.53 | 61.92% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.53 | 61.90% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.53 | 62.10% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.53 | 62.39% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.53 | 62.42% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.53 | 62.46% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.53 | 62.44% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.53 | 62.56% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.53 | 62.87% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.53 | 62.85% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.53 | 62.86% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.53 | 62.88% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.53 | 62.87% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.53 | 62.85% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.53 | 62.82% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.53 | 62.76% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.53 | 62.86% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.53 | 62.88% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.53 | 62.89% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.53 | 62.80% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.53 | 62.89% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.53 | 63.16% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.53 | 63.18% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.53 | 63.12% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.53 | 62.80% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.53 | 62.99% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.53 | 62.95% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.53 | 62.95% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $0.53 | 62.95% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed#ffd700 0.1%covert knife 0.3%gold 0.2%industrial 60.0%consumer 39.3%best hit $54.92 (103.6x)