Курочки
A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$2.49
Advertised RTP
74.33%
EV $1.85 from 24 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.09%
328 openings, odds method
Variance
0.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
33.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
76.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 74.85% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (75.53% – 92.65%, 328 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 330 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 74.33%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $2.49 | 74.33% | 24 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $2.49 | 74.17% | 24 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $2.49 | 74.15% | 24 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $2.49 | 74.44% | 24 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $2.49 | 74.77% | 24 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $2.49 | 74.83% | 24 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $2.49 | 74.82% | 24 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $2.49 | 74.82% | 24 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $2.49 | 74.89% | 24 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $2.49 | 75.32% | 24 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $2.49 | 75.30% | 24 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $2.49 | 75.30% | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $2.49 | 75.33% | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $2.49 | 75.31% | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $2.49 | 75.36% | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $2.49 | 75.34% | 24 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $2.49 | 75.27% | 24 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $2.49 | 75.27% | 24 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $2.49 | 75.36% | 24 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $2.49 | 75.41% | 24 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $2.49 | 75.25% | 24 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $2.49 | 75.36% | 24 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $2.49 | 75.67% | 24 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $2.49 | 75.73% | 24 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $2.49 | 75.59% | 24 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $2.49 | 75.36% | 24 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $2.49 | 75.44% | 24 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $2.49 | 75.41% | 24 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $2.49 | 75.43% | 24 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $2.49 | 75.44% | 24 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 3.2%covert 0.0%pink 0.0%restricted 16.9%#4b69ff 5.7%industrial 0.2%Legendary 1.1%uncommon 1.3%milspec 1.9%Rare 14.7%Common 9.5%high 10.1%consumer 10.4%mil spec 13.1%High Grade 11.9%best hit —