Chroma 2 Case

A case on csgo.net (Standard), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$2.59

Advertised RTP

75.47%

EV $1.95 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d

77.68%

106 openings, odds method

Variance

9.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

41.8%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

97.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

19 openings · below min

7 days

98 openings · below min

30 days

77.68%±56.55106 openings

since tracking started

77.68%±56.55106 openings

-0.5%105.0%210.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	19	75.45%±134.2	—	odds
7d	98	78.71%±58.8	—	odds
30d	106	77.68%±56.6	+0.0σ	odds
All	106	77.68%±56.6	+0.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 106 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 9,991	$559	2.9%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 9,976	$398	2.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 9,918	$263	1.4%	0	0.0	—
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 9,112	$115	0.6%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 9,002	$110	0.6%	0	0.0	—
★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 8,736	$101	0.6%	0	0.0	—
FAMAS \| Djinn (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 135	$12.25	4.6%	1	0.8	—
Galil AR \| Eco (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 122	$11.80	5.0%	5	0.9	—
Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 113	$11.47	5.2%	0	0.9	—
AWP \| Worm God (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	18.5%	$2.38	22.6%	15	19.7	0.76×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	20.7%	$1.75	18.5%	8	21.9	0.36×
UMP-45 \| Grand Prix (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	19.6%	$1.24	12.4%	25	20.8	1.20×
MAG-7 \| Heat (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	19.4%	$1.20	11.9%	10	20.5	0.49×
CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	19.3%	$1.18	11.6%	27	20.4	1.32×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MAG-7 | Heat (Well-Worn)weapon · violetРаст$2.59$1.170.45x3h

UMP-45 | Grand Prix (Field-Tested)weapon · violetРаст$2.59$1.240.48x3h

AK-47 | Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · RareРаст$2.59$1.740.67x3h

UMP-45 | Grand Prix (Field-Tested)weapon · violetРаст$2.59$1.240.48x3h

MAG-7 | Heat (Well-Worn)weapon · violetРаст$2.59$1.170.45x3h

MAG-7 | Heat (Well-Worn)weapon · violetROLTON$2.59$1.190.46x8h

UMP-45 | Grand Prix (Field-Tested)weapon · violetROLTON$2.59$1.200.46x8h

AWP | Worm God (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ffROLTON$2.59$2.380.92x8h

Galil AR | Eco (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedKonstantin$2.59$11.214.33x16h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 75.47%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$2.59	75.47%	14
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$2.59	75.27%	14
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$2.59	75.32%	14
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$2.59	75.58%	14
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$2.59	75.97%	14
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$2.59	76.01%	14
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$2.59	75.95%	14
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$2.59	75.97%	14
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$2.59	76.08%	14
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$2.59	76.51%	14
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$2.59	76.58%	14
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$2.59	76.52%	14
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$2.59	76.49%	14
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$2.59	76.46%	14
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$2.59	76.47%	14
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$2.59	76.55%	14
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$2.59	76.55%	14
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$2.59	76.47%	14
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$2.59	76.45%	14
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$2.59	76.48%	14
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$2.59	76.40%	14
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$2.59	76.48%	14
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$2.59	76.91%	14
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$2.59	76.92%	14
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$2.59	76.90%	14
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$2.59	76.43%	14
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$2.59	76.55%	14
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$2.59	76.53%	14
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$2.59	76.55%	14
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$2.59	76.58%	14

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.1%#d32ee6 0.7%classified 1.7%#8847ff 18.5%Rare 20.7%violet 39.0%restricted 19.3%best hit —