Chroma 3 Case
A case on csgo.net (Standard), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$4.09
Advertised RTP
75.64%
EV $3.09 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
63.90%
81 openings, odds method
Variance
6.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
12.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
88.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 81 openings and 14.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 81 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Karambit | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 9,936 | $592 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 9,931 | $575 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny | 1 in 9,449 | $283 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Flip Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 8,832 | $216 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Bayonet | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 7,190 | $150 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| PP-Bizon | Judgement of Anubis (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 5,114 | $111 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 4,886 | $108 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Gut Knife | Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · gold | 1 in 1,564 | $62.46 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| P250 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 18 | $12.23 | 22.5% | 4 | 4.6 | 0.87× |
| AUG | Fleet Flock (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6 | 1 in 16 | $11.90 | 23.5% | 5 | 5.0 | 1.01× |
| CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 46.1% | $1.71 | 25.5% | 32 | 37.3 | 0.86× |
| SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff | 41.9% | $1.44 | 19.5% | 11 | 34.0 | 0.32× |
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 75.64%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $4.09 | 75.64% | 12 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $4.09 | 75.44% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $4.09 | 75.42% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $4.09 | 75.64% | 13 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $4.09 | 76.02% | 11 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $4.09 | 76.05% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $4.09 | 76.07% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $4.09 | 76.12% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $4.09 | 76.20% | 21 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $4.09 | 76.63% | 21 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $4.09 | 76.57% | 21 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $4.09 | 76.47% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $4.09 | 76.71% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $4.09 | 76.70% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $4.09 | 76.60% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $4.09 | 76.58% | 21 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $4.09 | 76.58% | 21 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $4.09 | 76.59% | 21 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $4.09 | 76.58% | 21 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $4.09 | 76.61% | 21 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $4.09 | 76.60% | 21 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $4.09 | 76.66% | 21 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $4.09 | 77.01% | 21 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $4.09 | 77.03% | 21 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $4.09 | 76.89% | 21 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $4.09 | 76.59% | 21 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $4.09 | 76.69% | 21 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $4.09 | 76.69% | 21 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $4.09 | 76.70% | 21 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $4.09 | 76.68% | 21 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%sunny 0.0%gold 0.1%classified 5.7%#d32ee6 6.1%restricted 46.1%#8847ff 41.9%best hit —