ClaudioBola
A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$2.09
Advertised RTP
65.07%
EV $1.36 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
121.91%
1,060 openings, odds method
Variance
8.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
89.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 65.27% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (104.31% – 139.51%, 1,060 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,060 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 9,837 | $434 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 7,486 | $159 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Navaja Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 3,740 | $93.13 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)weapon · Covert | 1 in 2,076 | $70.73 | 2.5% | 6 | 0.5 | — |
| Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 10.5% | $10.61 | 81.7% | 97 | 110.9 | 0.87× |
| Charm | Big Kevcharm · #4b69ff | 89.4% | $0.14 | 9.2% | 860 | 948.0 | 0.91× |
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 65.07%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $2.09 | 65.07% | 6 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $2.09 | 64.90% | 6 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $2.09 | 64.75% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $2.09 | 64.75% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $2.09 | 64.97% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $2.09 | 65.29% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $2.09 | 65.28% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $2.09 | 65.27% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $2.09 | 65.32% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $2.09 | 65.37% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $2.09 | 65.77% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $2.09 | 65.73% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $2.09 | 65.73% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $2.09 | 65.72% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $2.09 | 65.76% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $2.09 | 65.70% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $2.09 | 65.75% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $2.09 | 65.73% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $2.09 | 65.74% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $2.09 | 65.72% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $2.09 | 65.75% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $2.09 | 65.70% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $2.09 | 65.76% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $2.09 | 66.07% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $2.09 | 66.07% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $2.09 | 65.99% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $2.09 | 65.73% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $2.09 | 65.83% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $2.09 | 65.84% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $2.09 | 65.85% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%Covert 0.0%restricted 10.5%#4b69ff 89.4%best hit —