Clutch case
A case on csgo.net (Standard), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$13.99
Advertised RTP
73.21%
EV $10.24 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
24.56%
12 openings, odds method
Variance
2.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
24.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 12 openings and 2.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 9,923 | $1,885 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Huntsman Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · #ffd700 | 1 in 628 | $150 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| MP7 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 11.3% | $30.45 | 33.5% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient | 12.8% | $28.62 | 35.9% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| AUG | Stymphalian (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6 | 26.1% | $3.72 | 9.5% | 0 | 3.1 | 0.00× |
| AWP | Mortis (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 25.3% | $3.58 | 8.8% | 6 | 3.0 | 1.98× |
| USP-S | Cortex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 24.3% | $3.41 | 8.1% | 4 | 2.9 | 1.37× |
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 73.21%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $13.99 | 73.21% | 7 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $13.99 | 73.05% | 7 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $13.99 | 73.03% | 7 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $13.99 | 73.32% | 7 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $13.99 | 73.63% | 7 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $13.99 | 73.63% | 7 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $13.99 | 73.61% | 7 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $13.99 | 73.67% | 7 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $13.99 | 73.75% | 7 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $13.99 | 74.15% | 7 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $13.99 | 74.12% | 7 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $13.99 | 74.12% | 7 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $13.99 | 74.15% | 7 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $13.99 | 74.16% | 7 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $13.99 | 74.15% | 7 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $13.99 | 74.15% | 7 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $13.99 | 74.13% | 7 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $13.99 | 74.13% | 7 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $13.99 | 74.15% | 7 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $13.99 | 74.14% | 7 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $13.99 | 74.08% | 7 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $13.99 | 74.20% | 7 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $13.99 | 74.52% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $13.99 | 74.56% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $13.99 | 74.47% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $13.99 | 74.17% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $13.99 | 74.24% | 7 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $13.99 | 74.25% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $13.99 | 74.25% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $13.99 | 74.22% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 11.3%#ffd700 0.2%Ancient 12.8%#d32ee6 26.1%classified 49.6%best hit —