Cobblestone
A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$74.99
Advertised RTP
75.86%
EV $56.89 from 13 items
Observed RTP, 30d
127.30%
56 openings, odds method
Variance
16.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
36.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 56 openings and 20.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 56 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 1,440 | $6,771 | 8.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 167 | $3,271 | 34.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| MP9 | Dark Age (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 35.9% | $47.44 | 29.9% | 15 | 20.1 | 0.75× |
| P2000 | Chainmail (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 32.0% | $42.11 | 23.7% | 23 | 17.9 | 1.28× |
| MAG-7 | Silver (Factory New)weapon · #87c7ff | 1 in 13 | $9.63 | 1.3% | 0 | 4.2 | 0.00× |
| USP-S | Royal Blue (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 1 in 16 | $7.85 | 0.8% | 0 | 3.4 | 0.00× |
| Nova | Green Apple (Minimal Wear)weapon · Industrial Grade | 1 in 17 | $7.47 | 0.8% | 0 | 3.3 | 0.00× |
| Sawed-Off | Rust Coat (Field-Tested)weapon · Industrial Grade | 1 in 19 | $6.95 | 0.7% | 0 | 3.0 | 0.00× |
| MAC-10 | Indigo (Field-Tested)weapon · Common | 1 in 68 | $1.90 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| P90 | Storm (Field-Tested)weapon · Common | 1 in 72 | $1.80 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| Dual Berettas | Briar (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer | 1 in 75 | $1.72 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| SCAR-20 | Storm (Field-Tested)weapon · #777777 | 1 in 78 | $1.64 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| UMP-45 | Indigo (Field-Tested)weapon · #777777 | 1 in 86 | $1.50 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 75.86%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $74.99 | 75.86% | 13 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $74.99 | 75.69% | 13 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $74.99 | 75.67% | 13 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $74.99 | 75.96% | 13 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $74.99 | 76.29% | 13 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $74.99 | 76.30% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $74.99 | 76.28% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $74.99 | 76.35% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $74.99 | 76.42% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $74.99 | 76.85% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $74.99 | 76.82% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $74.99 | 76.81% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $74.99 | 76.83% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $74.99 | 76.84% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $74.99 | 76.84% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $74.99 | 76.85% | 13 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $74.99 | 76.82% | 13 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $74.99 | 76.83% | 13 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $74.99 | 76.84% | 13 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $74.99 | 76.84% | 13 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $74.99 | 76.77% | 13 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $74.99 | 76.89% | 13 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $74.99 | 77.24% | 13 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $74.99 | 77.25% | 13 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $74.99 | 77.16% | 13 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $74.99 | 76.85% | 13 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $74.99 | 76.94% | 13 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $74.99 | 76.93% | 13 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $74.99 | 76.94% | 13 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $74.99 | 76.91% | 13 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%classified 0.6%mil spec 67.9%#87c7ff 7.5%industrial 6.1%Industrial Grade 11.2%Common 2.9%consumer 1.3%#777777 2.4%best hit $2,765 (36.87x)