COD: Modern Warfare 4
A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 6 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$0.17
Advertised RTP
75.05%
EV $0.13 from 30 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.19%
24K openings, odds method
Variance
0.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
40.4%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
88.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 75.81% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (84.15% – 86.22%, 24,018 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 24.1K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 75.05%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.17 | 75.05% | 30 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.17 | 74.91% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.17 | 74.97% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.17 | 75.18% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.17 | 75.51% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.17 | 75.50% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.17 | 75.43% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.17 | 75.50% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.17 | 75.57% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.17 | 76.00% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.17 | 76.02% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.17 | 75.97% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.17 | 76.07% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.17 | 75.95% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.17 | 75.94% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.17 | 76.03% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.17 | 76.05% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.17 | 75.98% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.17 | 76.04% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.17 | 75.99% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.17 | 75.91% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.17 | 76.11% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.17 | 76.51% | 30 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 2.3%#d32ee6 0.0%classified 0.0%#d32ce6 0.0%#8847ff 0.5%Mythical 0.0%violet 1.4%#4b69ff 12.1%milspec 23.8%uncommon 5.9%Rare 32.3%blue 21.7%best hit —