CS20 Case

A case on csgo.net (Standard), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$0.93

Advertised RTP

76.75%

EV $0.71 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

85.34%

1,366 openings, odds method

Variance

10.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

17.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

93.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

68 openings · below min

7 days

86.97%±18.331,278 openings

30 days

85.34%±17.731,366 openings

since tracking started

85.34%±17.731,366 openings

-0.5%69.0%138.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	68	61.48%±76.2	—	odds
7d	1,278	86.97%±18.3	+1.0σ	odds
30d	1,366	85.34%±17.7	+0.8σ	odds
All	1,366	85.34%±17.7	+0.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,366 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Classic Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 9,985	$245	3.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Classic Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 9,803	$104	1.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Classic Knife \| Stained (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 9,653	$85.70	1.2%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 8,906	$56.89	0.9%	0	0.2	—
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,345	$29.56	0.8%	0	0.3	—
MP9 \| Hydra (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 115	$6.09	7.4%	25	11.9	2.11×
AUG \| Death by Puppy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 45	$4.23	13.0%	50	30.1	1.66×
P90 \| Nostalgia (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 33	$3.70	15.7%	41	41.3	0.99×
P250 \| Inferno (Field-Tested)weapon · Restricted	11.2%	$0.53	8.3%	161	152.4	1.06×
MP5-SD \| Agent (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	11.1%	$0.52	8.1%	198	152.1	1.30×
Five-SeveN \| Buddy (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	10.2%	$0.46	6.6%	185	139.5	1.33×
M249 \| Aztec (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 10	$0.45	6.2%	154	135.5	1.14×
UMP-45 \| Plastique (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 11	$0.42	5.6%	176	129.4	1.36×
Dual Berettas \| Elite 1.6 (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 11	$0.38	4.7%	49	120.4	0.41×
FAMAS \| Decommissioned (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 12	$0.36	4.3%	73	115.7	0.63×
Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 12	$0.36	4.2%	62	114.5	0.54×
Tec-9 \| Flash Out (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 12	$0.36	4.1%	24	113.4	0.21×
SCAR-20 \| Assault (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 13	$0.34	3.8%	5	108.9	0.05×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP5-SD | Agent (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedRico$0.93$0.520.56x47m

FAMAS | Decommissioned (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specRico$0.93$0.380.40x47m

MP5-SD | Agent (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedRico$0.93$0.520.56x47m

M249 | Aztec (Field-Tested)weapon · violetRico$0.93$0.450.48x47m

Five-SeveN | Buddy (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedRico$0.93$0.470.50x47m

FAMAS | Decommissioned (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specRico$0.93$0.380.40x47m

UMP-45 | Plastique (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedRico$0.93$0.470.50x47m

Tec-9 | Flash Out (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specRico$0.93$0.360.38x47m

Five-SeveN | Buddy (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedvartak$0.93$0.470.51x2h

Five-SeveN | Buddy (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedtatSumi$0.93$0.470.51x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 76.75%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$0.93	76.75%	18
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$0.93	76.57%	19
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$0.93	76.62%	17
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$0.93	76.74%	17
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$0.93	77.16%	18
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$0.93	77.15%	19
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$0.93	77.15%	18
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$0.93	77.29%	16
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$0.93	77.31%	17
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$0.93	77.78%	17
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$0.93	77.77%	18
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$0.93	77.73%	18
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$0.93	77.74%	18
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$0.93	77.75%	18
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$0.93	77.70%	18
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.93	77.70%	18
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.93	77.64%	18
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$0.93	77.74%	17
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$0.93	77.69%	18
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.93	77.79%	17
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.93	77.71%	18
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$0.93	77.74%	18
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$0.93	78.21%	17
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$0.93	78.18%	17
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$0.93	78.03%	17
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$0.93	77.68%	16
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$0.93	77.84%	17
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$0.93	77.85%	17
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$0.93	77.80%	17
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$0.93	77.81%	17

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.1%covert knife 0.0%pink 0.9%classified 5.2%Restricted 11.2%restricted 30.8%violet 9.9%mil spec 41.9%best hit —