Cyrex mining
A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$0.19
Advertised RTP
67.01%
EV $0.13 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
1991.34%
473 openings, odds method
Variance
21.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 35
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
97.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 67.82% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (1948.88% – 2033.81%, 473 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 473 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SCAR-20 | Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 947 | $21.36 | 17.7% | 10 | 0.5 | — |
| SG 553 | Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 127 | $4.26 | 26.4% | 139 | 3.7 | 37.24× |
| USP-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 1 in 52 | $3.06 | 46.3% | 317 | 9.1 | 34.77× |
| Dual Berettas | Contractor (Minimal Wear)weapon · Consumer Grade | 54.3% | $0.02 | 7.2% | 0 | 256.7 | 0.00× |
| AUG | Commando Company (Minimal Wear)weapon · #b0c3d9 | 26.7% | <$0.01 | 1.7% | 0 | 126.5 | 0.00× |
| Tec-9 | Army Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 16.2% | <$0.01 | 0.6% | 0 | 76.5 | 0.00× |
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 67.01%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.19 | 67.01% | 6 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.19 | 67.01% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.19 | 66.86% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.19 | 67.39% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.19 | 67.31% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.19 | 67.51% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.19 | 67.43% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.19 | 67.47% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.19 | 67.56% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.19 | 67.96% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.19 | 67.83% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.19 | 67.82% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.19 | 67.88% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.19 | 67.95% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.19 | 67.91% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.19 | 67.98% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.19 | 67.81% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.19 | 67.99% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.19 | 67.97% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.19 | 67.92% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.19 | 67.91% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.19 | 67.97% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.19 | 68.37% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.19 | 68.45% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.19 | 68.28% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.19 | 67.91% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.19 | 68.02% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.19 | 68.06% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.19 | 68.17% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $0.19 | 68.15% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 0.9%restricted 1.9%Consumer Grade 54.3%#b0c3d9 26.7%consumer 16.2%best hit $21.68 (114.1x)