CZ75-Auto

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$2.09

Advertised RTP

73.80%

EV $1.54 from 24 items

Observed RTP, 30d

78.22%

73 openings, odds method

Variance

0.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

34.9%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

81.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

10 openings · below min

7 days

65 openings · below min

30 days

73 openings · below min

since tracking started

73 openings · below min

67.0%99.3%131.5%

Small sample. 73 openings and 24.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	10	103.16%±27.6	—	odds
7d	65	79.78%±11.2	—	odds
30d	73	78.22%±10.7	—	odds
All	73	78.22%±10.7	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 73 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
CZ75-Auto \| Emerald Quartz (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 159,342	$82.05	0.0%	0	0.0	—
CZ75-Auto \| Victoria (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 149,002	$74.39	0.0%	0	0.0	—
CZ75-Auto \| Emerald (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 19,988	$24.98	0.1%	0	0.0	—
CZ75-Auto \| The Fuschia Is Now (Field-Tested)weapon · Classified	1 in 4,479	$14.72	0.2%	0	0.0	—
CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 2,254	$11.63	0.3%	0	0.0	—
CZ75-Auto \| Tread Plate (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 495	$6.92	0.9%	2	0.1	—
CZ75-Auto \| Nitro (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 203	$5.05	1.6%	0	0.4	—
CZ75-Auto \| Syndicate (Field-Tested)weapon · Restricted	1 in 119	$4.16	2.3%	1	0.6	—
CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 110	$4.04	2.4%	0	0.7	—
CZ75-Auto \| Slalom (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 95	$3.83	2.6%	1	0.8	—
CZ75-Auto \| Green Plaid (Field-Tested)weapon · Consumer Grade	1 in 54	$3.08	3.7%	0	1.3	0.00×
CZ75-Auto \| Hydraulics (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 42	$2.76	4.3%	3	1.8	1.71×
CZ75-Auto \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 42	$2.76	4.3%	2	1.8	1.14×
CZ75-Auto \| Indigo (Well-Worn)weapon · #777777	1 in 23	$2.11	6.0%	0	3.2	0.00×
CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 23	$2.09	6.0%	4	3.2	1.23×
CZ75-Auto \| Army Sheen (Minimal Wear)weapon · Common	1 in 21	$2.03	6.2%	0	3.5	0.00×
CZ75-Auto \| Poison Dart (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 20	$1.97	6.4%	3	3.7	0.82×
CZ75-Auto \| Silver (Minimal Wear)weapon · #87c7ff	1 in 16	$1.77	7.0%	0	4.5	0.00×
CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 15	$1.71	7.2%	4	4.7	0.84×
CZ75-Auto \| Hexane (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 12	$1.46	7.9%	6	6.1	0.99×
CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	10.8%	$1.18	8.3%	11	7.9	1.39×
CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	11.8%	$1.07	8.2%	11	8.6	1.28×
CZ75-Auto \| Twist (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	13.8%	$0.81	7.2%	6	10.0	0.60×
CZ75-Auto \| Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · grey	14.0%	$0.76	6.9%	0	10.2	0.00×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

CZ75-Auto | Pole Position (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedNilzran$2.09$1.180.56x9h

CZ75-Auto | Twist (Field-Tested)weapon · RareNilzran$2.09$0.800.38x9h

CZ75-Auto | Pole Position (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedNilzran$2.09$1.180.56x9h

CZ75-Auto | Slalom (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommonNilzran$2.09$3.841.84x9h

CZ75-Auto | Hexane (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specNilzran$2.09$1.460.70x9h

CZ75-Auto | Tacticat (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ffNilzran$2.09$1.020.49x9h

CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ffNilzran$2.09$6.923.31x9h

CZ75-Auto | Pole Position (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedStarskr1m✔$2.09$1.210.58x14h

CZ75-Auto | Tigris (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedmunmahi4$2.09$2.050.98x16h

CZ75-Auto | Poison Dart (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffМаленький Туркмеджон$2.09$1.900.91x18h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 73.80%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$2.09	73.80%	24
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$2.09	73.46%	24
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$2.09	73.53%	24
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$2.09	73.88%	24
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$2.09	74.23%	24
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$2.09	74.14%	24
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$2.09	74.16%	24
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$2.09	74.13%	24
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$2.09	74.28%	25
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$2.09	74.71%	25
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$2.09	74.69%	24
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$2.09	74.62%	24
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$2.09	74.69%	24
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$2.09	74.75%	24
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$2.09	74.69%	24
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$2.09	74.73%	24
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$2.09	74.73%	24
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$2.09	74.69%	24
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$2.09	74.72%	24
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$2.09	74.68%	24
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$2.09	74.63%	24
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$2.09	74.78%	24
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$2.09	75.11%	24
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$2.09	75.14%	25
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$2.09	74.96%	25
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$2.09	74.78%	25
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$2.09	74.85%	25
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$2.09	74.78%	25
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$2.09	74.81%	25
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$2.09	74.81%	25

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedmil spec 8.3%covert 0.0%Classified 0.0%Legendary 0.0%#8847ff 14.4%#4b69ff 7.9%Restricted 0.8%classified 0.9%uncommon 1.1%Consumer Grade 1.8%#777777 4.4%restricted 21.7%Common 4.7%#87c7ff 6.1%Rare 13.8%grey 14.0%best hit —